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    公元前190年至公元1949年安徽省旱灾时空分布特征分析

    Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of historical drought disasters in Anhui Province from 190 BC to 1949

    • 摘要: 结合历史记载及相关文献,梳理总结了安徽省历史旱灾的时空分布特征,并分析了历史特征与当前安徽省旱灾格局的异同之处及其原因。结果表明:公元前190年至公元1949 a中,安徽省旱灾记载共计593 a,平均3.6 a记载1次。空间上以江淮丘陵区最为严重,其次是皖北地区,这些地区至今仍是安徽省旱灾最为严重的区域。在季节分布上,夏季干旱最为频繁,夏秋干旱次之,冬季干旱最为罕见,这一特征与当前安徽省旱灾季节分布也基本一致。旱涝急转特征突出,皖北地区出现旱涝急转的概率较高,皖南则是涝旱急转的概率较高。研究总结了安徽省历史旱灾的时空分布特点,为理解区域旱灾形成机制提供了历史依据,并可为区域未来抗旱工作、农业生产及防灾减灾措施制定提供参考借鉴。

       

      Abstract: Based on historical records and relevant literature, summarized the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical droughts in Anhui Province, and analyzed the similarities and differences between historical characteristics and the current drought pattern in Anhui Province, as well as their reasons. The results indicate that from 190 BC to 1949, there were a total of 593 recorded droughts in Anhui Province, with an average of 3.6 recorded droughts per year. In terms of space, the Jianghuai hilly area is the most severe, followed by the northern Anhui region, which is still the area with the most severe drought in Anhui Province. In terms of seasonal distribution, summer drought is the most frequent, followed by summer and autumn drought, and winter drought is the rarest, which is consistent with the current distribution of drought seasons in Anhui Province. The characteristic of sudden changes in drought and flood is prominent, with a higher probability of occurrence in northern Anhui and a higher probability of sudden changes in flood and drought in southern Anhui. The study summarized the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical droughts in Anhui Province, providing a historical basis for understanding the mechanism of regional drought formation and providing reference for future drought resistance work, agricultural production, and disaster prevention and reduction measures in the region.

       

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