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    2024年江苏盐城市夏季干旱成因及影响分析

    Analysis of the causes and impacts of the summer drought in Yancheng City in 2024

    • 摘要: 近年来,江苏盐城市出现“五年三旱”,季节性干旱发生的频率不断增加。为了深入剖析盐城市干旱特性,更好地支撑区域旱情应对工作,选取2024年夏季干旱过程,从降水、上游来水、本地用水及区域水利工程调度等不同角度分析了此次干旱的成因。同时结合水源地供水安全保障水位和各灌(垦)区75%保证率农业用水水位,并运用保证率频率法和湿周法综合分析了此次干旱对供水、灌溉、通航和水生态等多个方面的影响程度,为区域旱情应对工作机制的构建奠定了基础。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, Yancheng City has experienced "three droughts in five years", with an increasing frequency of seasonal droughts. To deeply analyze the characteristics of drought in Yancheng City and better support regional drought response efforts, this paper selects the summer drought process in 2024 and analyzes the causes of this drought from different perspectives, including precipitation, upstream water inflow, local water use, and regional water conservancy project dispatching. At the same time, it combines the water supply safety guarantee level of water sources and the agricultural water use level with a 75% guarantee rate in various irrigation (reclamation) areas, and comprehensively analyzes the impact of this drought on water supply, irrigation, navigation, and aquatic ecology using the guarantee rate frequency method and wet perimeter method. A comprehensive summary and analysis of this drought process lays the foundation for the construction of a regional drought response mechanism.

       

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