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    人工智能模型在防汛减灾中的技术突破与应用场景

    Technical breakthroughs and application practices of artificial intelligence models in flood control and disaster reduction

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧、极端降水事件频发背景下,传统防汛模式面临严峻挑战。我国作为受洪涝灾害影响最严重的国家之一,近年来积极推进人工智能(Artificial Intelligence,AI)、物联网、数字孪生等新技术与防汛体系的深度融合,防汛工作从“经验驱动”向“数据驱动”转变。系统梳理了AI技术在水利领域的演进历程,从早期的专家系统到当前的深度学习与数字孪生技术,分析了其在洪水预报、城市内涝预警和区域水网协同管理中的核心突破进展。研究表明:AI混合模型可有效提升洪峰预报精度;计算机视觉与物联网技术支撑的城市内涝监测系统可实现“秒级识别—分钟响应”,处置效率提高6倍以上;数字孪生技术通过虚实交互推演,构建“预报—预警—预演—预案”闭环,优化跨流域调度效能。然而,当前智能防汛仍面临数据质量、极端事件泛化及跨部门协同等挑战,未来需深化物理模型与AI的融合,构建跨领域协同平台,并拓展防汛数据的民生服务价值,以全面提升防洪体系的韧性与智能化水平。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensified global climate change and frequent extreme precipitation events, traditional flood prevention models are facing severe challenges. As one of the countries most severely affected by flood disasters, China has actively promoted the deep integration of new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things, and digital twins with flood prevention systems in recent years. Flood prevention work has shifted from being "experience driven" to "datadriven". The system has reviewed the evolution of AI technology in the field of water conservancy, from early expert systems to current deep learning and digital twin technologies, and analyzed its core breakthroughs in flood forecasting, urban waterlogging warning, and regional water network collaborative management. Research has shown that AI hybrid models can effectively improve the accuracy of peak flood forecasting; The urban waterlogging monitoring system supported by computer vision and Internet of Things technology can achieve "second level recognition minute response" and improve disposal efficiency by more than 6 times; The digital twin technology constructs a closed loop of "forecast warning rehearsal contingency plan" through virtual real interaction deduction, optimizing the efficiency of cross basin scheduling. However, the current intelligent flood control still faces challenges such as data quality, extreme event generalization, and cross departmental collaboration. In the future, it is necessary to deepen the integration of physical models and AI, build cross domain collaboration platforms, and expand the value of flood control data for people's livelihood services, in order to comprehensively enhance the resilience and intelligence level of the flood control system.

       

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