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    2025年汉江上游秋汛雨洪特性及水库调度分析

    Analysis of autumn flood characteristics and reservoir scheduling in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River in 2025

    • 摘要: 2025年汉江上游发生历史罕见“旱涝急转”事件。在前期1—8月中旬汉江上游干流径流偏枯5~6成的背景下,8月25日至10月20日接连发生10次强降雨过程,汉江流域相继形成7次编号洪水(第1号至第7号),其中第2号至第5号洪水在15 d内集中发生,创下有实测记录以来最密集秋汛,本次秋汛的显著特性为降雨总量大、持续时间长,洪水极端密集与洪量巨大。通过系统分析其雨洪特性,采取“提前预泄腾库,梯级协同与错峰削峰,动态控制”的调度策略,实现秋汛洪水防御“零伤亡”与汛末大中型水库蓄水58.84亿m3保供任务双胜利。

       

      Abstract: In 2025, a rare "drought and flood emergency" event occurred in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. Against the backdrop of 50%~60% drought in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River from January to mid August, there were 10 consecutive heavy rainfall events from August 25th to October 20th, resulting in 7 numbered floods(No.1 to No.7) in the Hanjiang River Basin. Among them, the No.2 to No.5 floods occurred in a concentrated manner within 15 days, setting a record for the most intensive autumn flood in recorded history. The significant characteristics of this autumn flood were large total rainfall, long duration, extremely dense floods, and huge flood volume. By analyzing its rain and flood characteristics systematically and adopting a scheduling strategy of "advance pre release and release of reservoirs, cascade coordination and peak shaving, dynamic control", the goal is to achieve "zero casualties" in autumn flood defense and double victory in the task of storing 5.884 billion m3 of water for large and medium-sized reservoirs at the end of the flood season to ensure supply.

       

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