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    半干旱缺资料地区中小河流洪水预报方案编制研究

    Study on flood forecasting scheme compilation of medium and small rivers in semi-arid area without data

    • 摘要: 为提升半干旱缺资料地区中小河流的洪水预报能力,针对其洪水突发性强、水文资料匮乏的核心难题,提出了一套综合性的预报方案编制方法。该方法以多源信息融合为基础,综合利用历史数据、数字高程模型(DEM)提取的地貌特征、区域化查算及参数移植技术,构建了缺资料地区的解决方案。遵循“易用、成熟、高效”原则,建立了分层、分类的模型适配体系,并应用专业化软件工具提升编制效率。在河北省大清河及永定河水系30个断面的应用实践中,成功构建了92套预报方案,验证了所提方法能有效编制出精度合格的预报方案,其成果对类似地区洪水预报方案编制及防洪减灾实践具有重要参考价值。

       

      Abstract: In order to enhance the flood forecasting capability of small and medium-sized rivers in semi-arid areas with data scarcity, a comprehensive forecasting scheme formulation method is proposed to address the core challenges of strong flood suddenness and lack of hydrological data. This method is based on multi-source information fusion, and comprehensively utilizes historical data, terrain features extracted from digital elevation models(DEM), regional calculation, and parameter transplantation techniques to construct a solution for data deficient areas. Following the principles of "usability, maturity, and efficiency", a hierarchical and classified model adaptation system has been established, and specialized software tools have been applied to improve compilation efficiency. In the application practice of 30 sections of the Daqing River and Yongding River systems in Hebei Province, 92 sets of forecasting schemes were successfully constructed, verifying that the proposed method can effectively formulate accurate and qualified forecasting schemes. The results have important reference value for the formulation of flood forecasting schemes and flood control and disaster reduction practices in similar areas.

       

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