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    珠江三角洲城市群用水演变规律及驱动机制解析

    Evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of water use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

    • 摘要: 综合运用分段线性回归方法和对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI),系统分析了2000—2024年珠江三角洲(以下简称珠三角)城市群(广州、深圳、珠海、佛山、惠州、东莞、中山、江门、肇庆)用水量的时空演变规律及其驱动机制。结果表明,珠三角9市总用水量呈“先升后降”的演变特征,以2010年为转折点,2000—2010年缓慢上升,2010年后显著下降,工业规模扩张和人口增长是用水量上升的主要正向驱动力,而工业用水效率提升和灌溉面积减少是用水量下降的主要负向驱动力。珠三角9市用水演变呈现显著的空间分异,反映了各城市独特的经济发展阶段、产业结构、人口变动和政策响应对用水量演变的影响。研究结果为区域水资源精细化管理和城市群用水调控提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: This study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of water use in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2024, using a combination of piecewise linear regression and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) decomposition method. The results show that the total water use of the nine PRD cities exhibits a "rise then fall" trend, with 2010 as the turning point—a gradual increase from 2000 to 2010, followed by a significant decline after 2010. Industrial scale expansion and population growth are the main positive drivers of increased water use, while industrial water use efficiency improvement and irrigation area reduction are the main negative drivers of decreased water use.The water use evolution across the nine PRD cities shows significant spatial differentiation, reflecting the influence of each city's unique stage of economic development, industrial structure, demographic changes, and policy responses on water use evolution.The findings provide a scientific basis for refined regional water resources management and water use regulation in urban agglomerations.

       

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