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    基于短期降雨预报的大桥水库汛限水位动态控制研究

    Study on dynamic control of flood limit water level for Daqiao Reservoir based on short-term rainfall forecast

    • 摘要: 大桥水库是金沙江支流雅砻江下游左岸一级支流安宁河干流上的一座龙头水库,工程任务以灌溉和工业城镇生活供水为主。随着安宁河流域社会经济的快速发展,大桥水库的供水日趋紧张,水资源供需矛盾日益突出。通过对中央气象台针对大桥水库所在区域的未来48 h短期降雨预报精度和实际降雨分布规律进行研究,表明中央气象台对于大桥水库所在区域的未来48 h无雨、小雨预报在大桥水库汛限水位动态控制中是可以应用的;在此基础上采用预泄能力约束法确定了大桥水库汛限水位动态控制域,基于预蓄预泄法提出了大桥水库汛限水位动态控制方案,并对动态控制方案的防洪安全进行了分析。应用结果表明,大桥水库按照汛限水位动态控制方案进行动态调度,不会影响上下游及大坝本身的防洪安全,同时能有效地提高水库蓄水量和洪水资源的利用率。

       

      Abstract: Dynamic control of flood limit water level for Daqiao reservoir is studied in this paper. Firstly, the accuracy and actual rainfall distribution of short-term rainfall forecast in Daqiao Reservoir are investigated using National Meteorological Center information. The study results indicate that short-term rainfall forecast information can be applied to dynamic control of flood limit water Level for Daqiao reservoir. Secondly, the dynamic control domains for Daqiao reservoir flood limit water level are determined using constrained pre-discharge capacity method. Finally, the dynamic control scheme for Daqiao reservoir flood limit water level is proposed. A case study indicates that the dynamic control scheme will not affect the protecting standards and can effectively improve utilization rate of flood resources.

       

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