Flood forecasting and verification for the barrier lake of Hongshiyan during flood season of 2016

Construction and management of the barrier lake in Hongshiyan are in critical stage in 2016, hydrological information forecasting is important for organizing and planning purpose and staffing management. Based on survey data of hydrological condition, the monthly maximum flood peak flow in barrier lake is proposed by multiple regression analysis methods and tendency superposing model. Since ENSO stronger and longer in 2015, the possibility of severe flood disaster could be occurred in 2016, especially in August at barrier lake in Hongshiyan, the maximum flood peak discharge estimated at 1210 m3 / s, return period once every five years. The calculation results provide reference for flood control and management in barrier lake of Hongshiyan 2016.