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    程红, 陈兴伟. 东南沿海典型流域台风暴雨洪水预报的HEC-HMS模型[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(3): 61-65. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021327
    引用本文: 程红, 陈兴伟. 东南沿海典型流域台风暴雨洪水预报的HEC-HMS模型[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(3): 61-65. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021327
    CHENG Hong, CHEN Xingwei. The HEC-HMS model for typhoon and rainstorm flood forecasting in typical river basins in the southeast coast[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(3): 61-65. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021327
    Citation: CHENG Hong, CHEN Xingwei. The HEC-HMS model for typhoon and rainstorm flood forecasting in typical river basins in the southeast coast[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(3): 61-65. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021327

    东南沿海典型流域台风暴雨洪水预报的HEC-HMS模型

    The HEC-HMS model for typhoon and rainstorm flood forecasting in typical river basins in the southeast coast

    • 摘要: 东南沿海的西溪流域属于山区性河流,汛期洪水暴涨陡落,台风暴雨影响下的洪水预报是防洪减灾的重要问题。选用HEC-HMS(The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling Systerm)模型,基于2003-2012年历年最大一次台风暴雨洪水资料,采用循环渐近法进行率定,将率定所得模型参数初损率与起涨流量、波速与最大平均雨强建立经验关系,用2013-2015年历年最大一次洪水进行验证。结果表明: ①HEC-HMS模型对西溪流域的台风暴雨洪水具有较强的适用性,率定期9场洪水,仅2场洪水洪峰流量相对误差大于20%,峰现时差在2 h以内,效率系数均值为0.82;验证期洪水、洪峰流量误差和洪量误差均未超过20%; ②通过建立模型参数变化经验关系,为该模型应用于洪水预报提供了新的方法。建立的初损率与起涨流量、波速与最大1 h平均雨强经验关系,相关系数分别为0.956与0.899;应用该经验关系,可通过起涨流量和暴雨雨强的预报,确定模型参数,从而实现洪水过程与洪峰流量的预报。

       

      Abstract: Located at southeast coast of China, the Xixi Basin is a mountainous river basin, and floods rise and fall steeply. Flood forecasting under the influence of typhoon and rainstorm is an important issue for flood prevention and mitigation. In this paper, the iterative asymptotic method was used to calibrate the key parameters of the HEC-HMS model with the flood events of the largest annual typhoon rainstorm flood from 2003 to 2012. An empirical relationship was established between the initial loss rate of the calibrated model parameters and the initial discharge, wave velocity and the maximum rainfall intensity. Then the relationships were verified with the largest annual flood from 2013 to 2015. The results showed that:①HEC-HMS model has strong applicability for the typhoon rainstorm flood in Xixi Basin. There are 9 calibration period floods, only 2 floods, the relative error of peak discharge is greater than 20%, The peak time difference is within 2 h, and the average efficiency coefficient is 0.82; During the verification period, the peak discharge error and flood volume error shall not exceed 20%. ②It provides a new method to apply the model to flood forecasting. The correlation coefficients of the established empirical relationships between the initial loss rate and the initial discharge, wave velocity and maximum 1-h average rainstorm intensity are 0.956 and 0.899, respectively. By applying the empirical relationships, the model parameters can be determined through the forecasts of the initial discharge and the rainstorm intensity, and the flood process and the peak flow can then be forecast with the model.

       

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