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    刘宇涛, 张过, 陈振炜, 陈伟涛, 张艳军, 王舜瑶, 徐子兴. 长江流域斜坡地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(11): 7-14. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022384
    引用本文: 刘宇涛, 张过, 陈振炜, 陈伟涛, 张艳军, 王舜瑶, 徐子兴. 长江流域斜坡地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(11): 7-14. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022384
    LIU Yutao, ZHANG Guo, CHEN Zhenwei, CHEN Weitao, ZHANG Yanjun, WANG Shunyao, XU Zixing. Evaluation of the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(11): 7-14. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022384
    Citation: LIU Yutao, ZHANG Guo, CHEN Zhenwei, CHEN Weitao, ZHANG Yanjun, WANG Shunyao, XU Zixing. Evaluation of the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(11): 7-14. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022384

    长江流域斜坡地质灾害易发性评价

    Evaluation of the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin

    • 摘要: 对长江流域进行斜坡地质灾害易发性评价,为长江流域斜坡地质灾害防治和水利工程建设提供支持。基于斜坡地质灾害的孕灾环境、诱发因素和动力学特征,选取高程、坡度、坡向、工程岩组、断层距离、水系距离、震源距离、年均降水量、道路距离和地表形变共10个因素作为评价因子,结合长江流域历史斜坡地质灾害点,采用随机森林模型,对长江流域进行斜坡地质灾害易发性评价,划分为极低、低、中、高、极高5种易发性等级。长江流域斜坡地质灾害易发性评价模型的精度为0.95,评价结果极高易发区面积占比4%,极高易发区内历史斜坡地质灾害数占总数的41%,高程、坡度和年均降水量这3个因子对斜坡地质灾害的发生有较大贡献;在长江流域划分了4个斜坡地质灾害高风险区域。长江流域斜坡地质灾害易发性评价结果准确度高,斜坡地质灾害高风险区域划分合理。

       

      Abstract: The evaluation of the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin will provide support for the prevention and control of slope geological hazards and the construction of water projects in the Yangtze River basin. Based on the hazard generating environment, triggering factors and dynamic characteristics of slope geological disasters, 10 factors including elevations, slopes, aspects, lithology, fault distances, river system distances, distances to epicenter, annual average precipitation, distances to roads and surface deformations are selected as evaluation factors. Combined with historical slope geological hazards points in the Yangtze River basin, random forest model is used to evaluate the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin, which is divided into extremely low, low, medium, high and extremely high levels. The accuracy of the assessment model for the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin is 0.95. The assessment results show that the area of extremely high prone areas accounts for 4% of the total area, and the number of historical slope geological hazards in extremely high prone areas accounts for 41% of the total numbers. The three factors of elevation, slope and annual average precipitation have made great contributions to the occurrence of slope geological hazards. Four high risk areas of slope geological hazards are divided in the Yangtze River basin. The evaluation results of the susceptibility of slope geological hazards in the Yangtze River basin are highly accurate, and the high-risk areas of slope geological hazards are reasonably divided.

       

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