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    周照强, 邹华志, 史海匀. 珠江流域干旱时空变化特征及驱动力分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(6): 1-11. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023170
    引用本文: 周照强, 邹华志, 史海匀. 珠江流域干旱时空变化特征及驱动力分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(6): 1-11. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023170
    ZHOU Zhaoqiang, ZOU Huazhi, SHI Haiyun. Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of drought in the Pearl River Basin[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2023, 33(6): 1-11. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023170
    Citation: ZHOU Zhaoqiang, ZOU Huazhi, SHI Haiyun. Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of drought in the Pearl River Basin[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2023, 33(6): 1-11. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023170

    珠江流域干旱时空变化特征及驱动力分析

    Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of drought in the Pearl River Basin

    • 摘要: 干旱是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,严重影响人民生命财产安全。本研究以珠江流域为例,分别利用标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)表征气象干旱和水文干旱,评估了珠江流域气象干旱和水文干旱的变化特征,并利用交叉小波探究了遥相关因素对珠江流域干旱的影响。研究结果表明:珠江流域的大部分地区气象干旱呈现减小趋势,流域西部减小趋势显著;大部分地区的水文干旱呈现减小的趋势,东部和西部地区减小趋势显著。1981-2019年,气象干旱的发生频次为22~46次,水文干旱的发生频次为16~43次,但水文干旱的历时和烈度大于气象干旱。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋年代际震荡指数(PDO)对各分区的气象干旱和水文干旱影响的时间尺度为8~48个月和8~32个月,太阳黑子(Sunspots)对珠江流域的气象干旱和水文干旱影响相对较小,ENSO和PDO是珠江流域气象干旱和水文干旱的主要驱动力。

       

      Abstract: Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters, which can seriously affect the safety of people's lives and property. Taking the Pearl River Basin as an example, this study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts respectively, evaluates the change characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Pearl River Basin. And uses cross wavelet transformation to explore the impact of teleconnection factors on drought in the Pearl River Basin. The results show that the meteorological drought in most areas of the Pearl River Basin is decreasing, and the decreasing trend is significant in the western part of the river basin. The hydrological drought in most areas showed a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend was significant in the eastern and western parts of the Pearl River Basin. From 1981 to 2019, the frequency of meteorological drought was 22~46 times, and the frequency of hydrological drought was 16~43 times, but the duration and severity of hydrological droughts are greater than those of meteorological droughts. The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific interdecadal Oscillation (PDO) on meteorological and hydrological droughts in each sub-regions were mainly concentrated in 8~48 months and 8~32 months, while Sunspots had relatively little influence on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Pearl River Basin. ENSO and PDO are the main driving forces for meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Pearl River Basin.

       

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