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    吴航,苏小康,陈世洋,等. 基于气候变化的湖南长沙市城区长历时降雨频率曲线分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(4):108−112. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024148
    引用本文: 吴航,苏小康,陈世洋,等. 基于气候变化的湖南长沙市城区长历时降雨频率曲线分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(4):108−112. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024148
    WU Hang,SU Xiaokang,CHEN Shiyang,et al.Analysis of long rainfall frequency curve in Changsha urban area of Hunan Province based on climate change[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(4):108−112. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024148
    Citation: WU Hang,SU Xiaokang,CHEN Shiyang,et al.Analysis of long rainfall frequency curve in Changsha urban area of Hunan Province based on climate change[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(4):108−112. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024148

    基于气候变化的湖南长沙市城区长历时降雨频率曲线分析

    Analysis of long rainfall frequency curve in Changsha urban area of Hunan Province based on climate change

    • 摘要: 湖南长沙市温度变化呈现出持续增暖的趋势,气候变化导致城市极端降雨事件发生概率增大,城市内涝风险进一步增加。选取历史(1970—2018年)和未来时期(2030—2069年)降雨样本数据为研究对象,探究长沙市城区降雨特征及变化趋势;并基于P-Ⅲ型曲线拟合雨强—历时—频率曲线(IDF曲线),推求长历时不同重现期下长沙市设计降雨。研究结果表明,总体上长沙市城区历史年降雨天数呈较为明显的下降趋势,未来长沙市城区年最大日降雨量呈上升趋势,其上升趋势要大于历史数据。IDF曲线拟合结果表明,未来重现期大于20 a的设计降雨量高于现状设计降雨量,未来极端降雨呈现增大的趋势。研究以期为长沙市城区内涝防治系统规划设计及防灾减灾提供科学支撑与依据。

       

      Abstract: The temperature change in Changsha City of Hunan Province shows a continuous warming trend, and climate change increases the probability of extreme rainfall events in the city, further increasing the risk of urban waterlogging. This study cites the results of future rainfall inversion in Changsha urban area, selects historical (1970—2018) and future period (2030—2069) rainfall sample data as the research object, explores the characteristics and trends of precipitation in Changsha urban area, and based on Pearson III curve fitting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curve(IDF curve), calculating the design rainfall in Changsha urban area under different return periods of long duration (24 hours). The research results are as follows: overall, the historical annual rainfall days in the urban area of Changsha City have shown a significant downward trend, and the maximum daily rainfall in the future period shows a significant upward trend compared to historical periods. The IDF curve fitting results indicate that the design rainfall with a return period of more than 20 years in the future is higher than the current design rainfall, and the extreme rainfall in the future is showing an increasing trend. The research aims to provide scientific support and basis for the planning and design of the urban waterlogging prevention and control system, as well as disaster prevention and reduction in Changsha city.

       

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