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    基于物元可拓模型的江西省山洪灾害防治项目综合效益评价方法研究

    Study on comprehensive benefit evaluation method of flash flood disaster prevention project in Jiangxi Province based on matter-element extension model

    • 摘要: 根据江西省山洪灾害防治项目的建设情况和运行特点,以科学评价山洪灾害防治项目综合效益为目标,因地制宜确定7方面29项评估指标,采用层次分析法和熵权法相结合,引入博弈论方法并运用MATLAB计算评估指标的综合权重,运用物元可拓理论和密切值法构建评价模型,对江西省山洪灾害防治状况进行综合评价研究。结果表明,2010—2015年江西省山洪灾害防治项目综合效益评价的等级分别是Ⅲ、Ⅲ、Ⅱ、Ⅱ、Ⅱ、Ⅱ,特征值分别为:3.43、3.32、2.47、2.35、2.17、2.03,呈逐年减少的趋势,表明江西省山洪灾害防治项目正在逐年发挥效益,特征值在项目实施几年后趋于稳定,与项目中各类工程措施和非工程措施一般需要2~3 a才能逐步建成并发挥效益的情况一致,评价结果符合山洪灾害防治的实际状况,该方法能为其他地区山洪灾害防治效益或其他灾害防治效益评价提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Based on the construction status and operational characteristics of the flash flood disaster prevention project in Jiangxi Province. This paper aims to scientifically evaluate the comprehensive benefits of the flash flood disaster prevention project. In light of local conditions, 29 assessment indicators in 7 aspects are determined. We combined the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method, introduced game theory, and used MATLAB to calculate the comprehensive weights of indicators. Using matter-element extension theory and the close value method, we constructed an evaluation model to comprehensively assess the status of flash flood disaster prevention in Jiangxi Province. The results show that the comprehensive benefit evaluation grades for Jiangxi's flash flood disaster prevention projects are Ⅲ, Ⅲ, Ⅱ, Ⅱ, Ⅱ and Ⅱ, with characteristic values of 3.43, 3.32, 2.47, 2.35, 2.17 and 2.03, respectively. These values exhibit a decreasing trend year by year, indicating that the projects are progressively yielding benefits. The characteristic values tend to stabilize several years after project implementation, which aligns with the typical timeframe of two to three years required for various engineering and nonengineering measures to be fully constructed and become effective. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual conditions of flash flood disaster prevention. This method can serve as a reference for evaluating the prevention benefits of flash flood disasters or other disasters in other regions.

       

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