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    气候变化背景下南方城市极值降水演变研究

    Study on the evolution of extreme precipitation in southern cities under the background of climate change

    • 摘要: 以东莞气象站(以下简称东莞站)1960—2020年共61 a的实测降雨量作为基础资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验法、小波分析法、R/S分析法等方法,分析了东莞市极值降水的演变特征,研究结果表明:①东莞市极值降水具有明显的年际和代际变化。逐年极值降水序列呈现增大的趋势;20世纪70年代、80年代和21世纪00年代年最大日降雨量平均值和最大值都比较大,20世纪60年代最大日降水量平均值最小,20世纪90年代最大日降水量最大值最小。②东莞市极值降水在1960—1974年具有下降趋势,在1975—2020年具有上升趋势,但上升或下降趋势不显著,没有明显的突变点。1975年前后东莞站年最大日降水量变化较明显,1975—2020年历年最大日降水量平均值比1960—1974年平均值增大了19.63%。③东莞市极值降水具有4 a的主周期和21 a副周期。④未来东莞市降水极值具有较弱的增加趋势,且持续性强度有逐年减弱的趋势。

       

      Abstract: Based on the 61 years (1960 to 2020) measured rainfall of Dongguan meteorological station, the evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Dongguan City were analyzed by using M-K catastrophe test, wavelet analysis and R/S analysis. The results show that: ①The extreme precipitation in Dongguan City has obvious annual and generational changes. The annual extreme precipitation series shows an increasing trend. In the 1970s, 1980s and 2000s, the average and maximum daily maximum rainfall were relatively large, while the average of the maximum daily rainfall in the 1960s was the smallest, and the maximum daily rainfall in the 1990s was the smallest. ②Extreme precipitation in Dongguan City showed a downward trend from 1960 to 1974 and an upward trend from 1975 to 2020, but the upward or downward trend was not significant and there was no obvious abrupt point. Before and after 1975, the annual maximum daily rainfall at Dongguan station changed obviously, and the average annual maximum daily rainfall from 1975 to 2020 increased by 19.63% compared with the average from 1960 to 1974. ③Extreme precipitation in Dongguan City has a main cycle of 4 years and sub-cycle of 21 years. ④In the future, the extreme value of precipitation in Dongguan City will still have a weak increasing trend, and the continuous intensity will weaken year by year.

       

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