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    浑江桓仁流域极端降水特征分析

    Analysis of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Huanren Basin of the Hunjiang River

    • 摘要: 研究桓仁流域极端降水变化特征对流域水资源管理和防洪安全具有重要意义。基于桓仁流域1980—2023年19个雨量站逐日降水数据,采用趋势分析、滑动平均和小波变换等方法,分析极端降水变化。研究表明:全年极端降水事件在频次和强度上均显著上升,其中夏季频次和强度均呈显著上升趋势,秋季频次显著上升,2010年后上升更为突出。各极端降水指数均呈显著上升趋势,尤其是特极端降水值较2000年前明显增大,普通日降水强度、大雨日数和暴雨日数呈缓慢上升趋势。从各指标变化趋势和周期性来看,各极端降水指数变化存在一定周期性,特极端降水值和暴雨日数的第一主周期分别是5 a和14 a,其余指数的第一主周期普遍在20~22 a。研究成果可为桓仁流域极端事件应对及洪涝灾害防御提供支撑。

       

      Abstract: Studying the characteristics of extreme rainfall changes in the Huanren Basin is of great significance for water resource management and flood control safety in the basin. Based on daily rainfall data from 19 rainfall stations in the Huanren Basin from 1980 to 2023, extreme rainfall changes were analyzed using methods such as trend analysis, moving average, and wavelet transform. Research has shown that extreme rainfall events throughout the year have significantly increased in frequency and intensity, with a significant upward trend in summer frequency and intensity, a significant increase in autumn frequency, and a more prominent increase after 2010. Each extreme rainfall index shows a significant upward trend, especially the extreme rainfall value is significantly higher than before 2000, and the ordinary daily rainfall intensity, the number of heavy rain days and the number of rainstorm days show a slow upward trend. From the change trend and periodicity of each index, there is a certain periodicity in the change of each extreme rainfall index. The first main periods of extreme rainfall values and rainstorm days are 5 years and 14 years respectively, and the first main periods of other indexes are generally 20~22 years. The research results can provide support for extreme event response and flood disaster prevention in Huanren Basin.

       

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