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    基于CI和MCI指数的浙江金华市干旱特征分析

    Analysis of drought characteristics in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province based on CI and MCI index

    • 摘要: 基于浙江金华市8个国家气象站和88个区域代表站点的长期逐日降水量与气温等观测数据,选取综合气象干旱指数(Composite Meteorological Drought Index,CI)和对其修正后的气象干旱综合指数(Meteorological Drought Composite Index,MCI)作为评价指标,分析了金华市干旱特征的时空演变规律,并比较了2种指数对干旱监测的适用性。结果表明:1953—2022年金华市干旱日数呈不显著减少趋势,干旱强度整体有所减弱,其中2012年和2014年减弱的突变显著。空间分布上,2010—2022年金华市干旱强度和日数整体呈平原地区多,山区少的分布特征,东北部地区干旱程度有加重的趋势,东南部地区程度有所减轻。2011年和2022年2次典型干旱事件中,2种指数对干旱过程演变的反映总体同步,但在平均强度及突变响应等参数上表现出差异。CI监测的平均干旱强度更强,而MCI的干旱日数略偏多,并且在年际变化上相比CI波动幅度更大;MCI监测的干旱开始和结束的时间稍晚,CI对降水响应更加敏感,跳跃现象更多。

       

      Abstract: Based on the long-term data of daily precipitation and temperature from 8 national meteorological stations and 88 regional representative stations in Jinhua area, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of drought days and drought intensity were analyzed with Composite Meteorological Drought Index (CI) and Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI) as monitoring indexes. And we compared the applicability of the two indices for drought monitoring. The results show that: 1953—2022 The number of drought days in Jinhua showed a non-significant decrease trend, and the overall drought intensity weakened, with significant mutations in 2012 and 2014. In terms of spatial distribution, from 2010 to 2022, the drought intensity and drought days in Jinhua region showed an overall distribution pattern of more in plain areas and less in mountainous areas. The drought degree had a trend of aggravation in the northeast area and alleviation in the southeast area. In the two typical drought events of 2011 and 2022, the two indices generally showed synchronous changes in the evolution of the drought process. However, differences were observed in parameters such as average intensity and mutation response. The average drought intensity monitored by CI is stronger, while MCI has slightly more drought days and greater interannual fluctuations compared to CI. The onset and end times of drought monitored by MCI are slightly later, and CI is more sensitive to precipitation response with more jumping phenomena.

       

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