收录期刊

    高级检索

    气候变化背景下极端暴雨洪涝灾害的致灾机制与防御策略研究——以中国、西班牙、德国典型暴雨洪涝灾害为例

    Research on disaster-causing mechanisms and mitigation strategies of extreme rainstorm-induced flood disasters under climate change—Taking typicalrainstorm and flood disasters in China, Spain and Germany as examples

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,极端暴雨洪涝灾害频发且破坏性显著增强,给现有流域防洪韧性与灾害防御体系带来了严峻挑战。选取2021年德国“7·13”、2021年中国郑州“7·20”、2023年中国北京“7·31”及2024年西班牙“10·29”4场典型极端暴雨洪涝事件,通过横向对比分析其暴雨特征及应急响应过程,揭示气候变化与人类活动耦合作用下的致灾机制。研究发现:全球气候变暖、大气环流异常、区域性气候脆弱性凸显,极端暴雨呈现“超标准、突发性、不确定性”特征;流域下垫面条件与基础设施隐患显著放大灾害效应;预警响应滞后与公众防灾意识薄弱是导致伤亡加剧的关键短板。基于分析,提出构建“风险识别评估—监测预警联动—韧性工程治理—应急响应协同”的洪涝灾害韧性防御体系,为应对气候变化下的极端洪涝灾害事件提供理论支撑与实践参考。

       

      Abstract: Under the global climate change context, the increasing frequency and intensifying destructiveness of extreme rainstorm-induced flood disasters pose severe challenges to basin-scale flood resilience and disaster prevention systems. This study conducts a comparative analysis of four representative events: the 2024 Spain "10·29" extreme rainfall, 2021 Germany "7·13" extreme rainfall, 2021 Zhengzhou (China) "7·20" extreme rainfall, and 2023 Beijing (China) "7·31" extreme rainfall. Through horizontal comparison and analysis of their rainstorm characteristics and emergency response processes, the disastercausing mechanism under the coupling of climate change and human activities was revealed. The research finds that extreme rainstorm is characterized by "exceeding the standard, sudden and uncertainty"; the underlying surface conditions and infrastructure hazards in the basin significantly amplify the disaster effect; the lag of early warning response and the weak public awareness of disaster prevention are the key shortcomings that lead to the increase of casualties. Based on analysis, it is proposed to construct a flood disaster resilience defense system that integrates risk identification and assessment, monitoring and early warning, resilience engineering governance, and emergency response coordination, providing theoretical support and practical reference for responding to extreme flood disasters under climate change.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回