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    洪涝灾害对产业经济系统的影响评估

    Impact assessment of floods disasters on industrial economic systems

    • 摘要: 随着产业间关联性不断增强,洪涝灾害不仅会造成直接损失,还会引发更严重的间接经济损失。为全面评估洪涝灾害对经济系统的影响,以湖南省为例,构建投入产出(IO)模型,测量出静态情景下不同淹没水深下各产业关联间接经济损失,并筛选出对洪涝影响较为敏感的产业;随后借助动态非正常投入产出(DIIO)模型,评估动态情境下洪涝灾害造成的总产出经济损失,并对比两者总产出经济损失的差异。研究结果表明:①静态情景下,随淹没水深的增加,各产业灾后直接与间接经济损失随之升高,且高敏感产业经济损失增长速度远超其他产业,其总间接经济损失占总间接损失的比例高达66.83%;②动态情景下,受灾产业的间接经济损失对灾后恢复期的变化较为敏感,主要受灾产业的恢复期可由12个月降至1~6个月,受间接经济损失变化影响,总产出经济损失将大幅降低。本研究有助于提升洪涝灾害预防和应急管理效率,降低洪涝灾害综合经济损失,增强区域经济韧性。

       

      Abstract: With the increasing inter-industry correlation, flooding not only causes direct losses, but also leads to more severe indirect economic losses. In order to comprehensively assess the impact of floods on the economic system, taking Hunan Province as a case study, we constructed an input-output (IO) model to measure the indirect economic losses associated with various industries under different inundation depths in the static scenario and screened out the industries that were more sensitive to the impacts of floods; and then with the help of a dynamic inoperability input-output (DIIO) model, we assessed the total output economic losses caused by floods in the dynamic scenario and compared the difference between the two total output economic losses. The results of the study show that:①in the static scenario, with the increase of inundation depth, the direct and indirect economic loss of each industry after the disaster rises, and the economic loss of highly sensitive industries grows much faster than that of other industries, and its total indirect economic loss accounts for as much as 66.83% of the total indirect loss;②in the dynamic scenario, the indirect economic loss of the affected industries is more sensitive to the changes of the recovery period, and the recovery period can be reduced from 12 months to 1~6 months, and the total output economic loss will be significantly reduced due to changes in indirect economic loss. This study will improve the efficiency of flood prevention and emergency management, reduce the comprehensive economic loss of flood disasters, and enhance the resilience of regional economy.

       

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