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    2018-2024年山西省气象灾害预警频率特征与相关性研究

    Research on the frequency characteristics and correlation of meteorological disaster warning in Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2024

    • 摘要: 对2018—2024 年山西省121 231 条气象预警数据进行深入分析,采用线性回归、滑动平均和热力图分析等多种方法,探讨了气象预警发布的时空变化规律及其与气象灾害类型之间的相关性。研究结果显示,气象预警发布数量逐年上升,夏季(第二季度、第三季度)为高峰期,反映出气候变化的影响;暴雨与内涝、地质灾害之间存在显著相关性;热力图分析揭示了不同城市在各类预警中的发布频率差异,为气象灾害的风险管理提供了有力支撑。研究建议进一步结合复杂气候模型与社会经济因素,以提高预警系统的精准性和有效性。

       

      Abstract: This study analyzes the temporal frequency characteristics of meteorological disaster warnings in Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2024, aiming to offer a scientific basis for enhancing the capabilities of meteorological disaster prevention and control.By conducting an in-depth analysis of 121, 231 meteorological warning records, advanced methods such as linear regression, moving average, and autoregressive analysis were employed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of warning issuance and their correlations with different types of meteorological disasters.The results indicate that the frequency of warning issuance shows an annual upward trend. Summer (the second and third quarters) serves as the peak season, which is in line with the impacts of climate change. Moreover, significant correlations have been identified between heavy rainfall and urban waterlogging as well as geological disasters. The heatmap analysis reveals notable spatial disparities in warning frequencies across different cities, providing valuable insights for risk management. Based on these findings, the study recommends integrating complex climate models with socioeconomic factors to improve the precision and effectiveness of early warning systems. This research not only deepens our understanding of the characteristics of meteorological disaster warnings in Shanxi Province but also offers practical guidance for formulating more targeted disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

       

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