收录期刊

    高级检索

    基于GIS与AHP-EWM组合赋权法的粤港澳大湾区洪涝灾害风险评估

    Flood disaster risk assessment in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on GIS and AHP-EWM Combined Empowerment Methods

    • 摘要: 近年来,粤港澳大湾区洪涝灾害频发,开展综合性的风险评估对于大湾区的风险防范至关重要。构建了“致灾因子—孕灾因子—承灾因子—抗灾能力”的研究框架,基于GIS 与AHP-EWM 组合赋权法系统评估大湾区洪涝灾害风险特征,结果显示:①降雨量、开发强度(植被覆盖度和建筑密度)、经济活动强度是洪涝灾害发生的主要影响因素,其中开发强度对洪涝灾害风险的影响尤为显著;②大湾区洪涝灾害风险总体形成了“南高北低、河口极化、城市加剧”的复合型空间格局;③珠江口两岸呈现高潜在风险、强抗灾能力的特征,并形成了高风险连绵区,其丰富的水网资源、高密度的开发建设、高强度的经济活动导致了这一特征。基于风险评估,研究提出建立多尺度、多维度、全方位、智慧化的洪涝灾害“监测—识别—预警—响应—恢复”全生命周期防控与管理体系,可有效辅助决策,减少洪涝灾害的影响与损失。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, floods and waterlogging disasters have occurred frequently in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Conducting comprehensive risk assessments is crucial for risk prevention in the Greater Bay Area.A research framework of "disaster causing factors, disaster prone factors, disaster bearing factors, and disaster resistance capacity" was constructed.Based on the combination weighting method of GIS and AHP-EWM, the risk characteristics of flood disasters in the Greater Bay Area were systematically evaluated.The results showed that:①Rainfall, development intensity (vegetation coverage and building density), and economic activity intensity were the main influencing factors of flood disasters, among which development intensity had a particularly significant impact on flood disaster risk; ②The Greater Bay Area has formed a composite spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north, river mouth polarization, and urban intensification"; ③Both sides of the the Pearl River Estuary are characterized by high potential risks and strong disaster resistance, and a high-risk continuous zone has been formed, which is caused by its rich water network resources, high-density development and construction, and high-intensity economic activities. Based on risk assessment, the study proposes the establishment of a multiscale, multi-dimensional, all-round, and intelligent flood disaster "monitoring, identification, warning response, recovery" full life cycle prevention and control and management system, which can effectively assist decision-making and reduce the impact and losses of flood disasters.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回