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    山区强降水决策气象服务思考

    Analysis of decision-making meteorological services for mountainous areas based on heavy precipitation events

    • 摘要: 基于具有一定可预报性的区域性强降水、可预报性较差的局地极端强降水和造成人员伤亡的非典型性强降水事件,分析恩施州山区强降水决策气象服务中的经验与不足,梳理工作思路,旨在提升强降水决策气象服务能力:①“13101”“631”等工作机制联合使用,可有效提升强降水天气的决策气象服务质量和效率;②借助雷达外推、格点融合降水、卫星资料等多源资料,可减轻山区气象站代表性不足、雷达监测盲区问题,提高预警精准度,同时结合特殊地形开展基于风险判断的决策气象服务研究,减少或避免人员伤亡;③提升预报员水平和敏感性可提升决策气象服务和增强决策者进行科学决策的信心;④可根据每次过程进行服务效果回访复盘,针对性提升决策气象服务的不足。

       

      Abstract: Based on regional heavy precipitation event with certain predictability, localized extreme heavy precipitation event with poor predictability, and atypical heavy precipitation events causing casualties, the paper analyzes the experiences and shortcomings in decision-making meteorological services for heavy precipitation of Enshi Prefecture, aiming to clarify working approaches and enhance the capacity of decision-making meteorological services for heavy precipitation: ① The combined application of operational mechanisms such as "13101" and "631" can effectively improve the quality and efficiency of decisionmaking meteorological services for heavy precipitation. ②By utilizing multi-source data such as radar extrapolation, grid fused precipitation, and satellite data, the problem of insufficient representativeness in mountainous areas and blind spots in radar monitoring can be alleviated, thereby improving the precision and accuracy of early warning.At the same time, research on riskbased decision-making meteorological services based on special terrain can be carried out to reduce or avoid casualties. ③Enhancing forecasters' skills and sensitivity can improve decision-making meteorological services and strengthen decisionmakers' confidence in making decisions. ④Conducting post-event reviews and feedback on service effectiveness for each case can help addressing shortcomings in decision-making meteorological services.

       

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