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    鄱阳湖洪水组成及遭遇规律分析

    Analysis of flood composition and encounter patterns in Poyang Lake

    • 摘要: 鄱阳湖洪水遭遇容易造成严重洪涝灾害,分析历史入湖洪水特征对于湖区防洪意义重大。运用水文统计法从洪水组成、洪峰重现期、洪水遭遇等方面,重点分析赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修河5条河流的7个控制水文站(以下简称五河七口)洪水组成及遭遇规律。研究表明,鄱阳湖流域的洪峰发生时间集中在5—7月;饶河干支流、抚河与信江最大5 d洪量在71 a内发生37次遭遇,遭遇概率均51.4%;修河2支流最大7 d洪量在近41 a发生12次遭遇,遭遇概率仅为28.6%。1954年梅港站与万家埠站发生最大7 d洪量的遭遇,其他站点不遭遇;1998年饶河和修河部分站点发生最大7 d洪量遭遇;2020年五河七口多个站点在7月初同时发生最大7 d洪量遭遇。不同时长入湖洪量组成中,外洲站和虬津站最大1 d、3 d、5 d、7 d、15 d洪量比重随洪水历时增长而变大,其中赣江多年平均最大15 d洪量为97.5亿m3,占入湖洪量的50.2%;李家渡站、梅港站、虎山站、渡峰坑站和万家埠站最大1 d、3 d、5 d、7 d、15 d洪量比重随洪水历时增长而减小,多年平均最大7 d洪量比重均不足20%。研究结果有利于加强对鄱阳湖历史典型洪水规律的认识,可为鄱阳湖防汛减灾工作提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The floods in Poyang Lake are prone to cause serious flood disasters, and analyzing the historical characteristics of floods entering the lake is of great significance for flood control in the lake area. Using hydrological statistical methods, this study focuses on analyzing the flood composition and encounter patterns of seven control hydrological stations (hereinafter referred to as the Five Rivers and Seven Mouth) in five rivers, namely Gan River, Fu River, Xin River, Rao River, and Xiu River, from the aspects of flood composition, peak return period, and flood encounter. Research shows that the peak of floods in the Poyang Lake Basin occurs from May to July; Within 71 years, the maximum 5-day flood volume of Rao River's main and tributary rivers, Fu River, and Xin River experienced 37 encounters, with an average encounter probability of 51.4%; The maximum 7-day flood volume of the two tributaries of Xiu River has encountered 12 times in the past 41 years, with a probability of only 28.6%. In 1954, Meigang Station and Wanjiabu Station experienced a maximum 7-day flood, while other stations did not experience it; In 1998, some stations in Raohe and Xiuhe experienced a 7-day flood encounter; In early July 2020, multiple stations in Wuhe and Qikou experienced the maximum 7-day flood volume simultaneously. The proportion of the maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7- day, and 15 day flood volumes at Waizhou Station and Qiujin Station increases with the duration of the flood. Among them, the average maximum 15 day flood volume of the Ganjiang River over the years is 9.75 billion m3, accounting for 50.2% of the inflow into the lake; The proportion of maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, and 15 day flood volumes at Lijiadu Station, Meigang Station, Hushan Station, Dufengkeng Station, and Wanjiabu Station decreases with the increase of flood duration, and the average proportion of maximum 7-day flood volumes over the years is less than 20%. The research results are conducive to strengthening the understanding of the typical flood patterns in the history of Poyang Lake, and can provide scientific basis for flood prevention and disaster reduction work in Poyang Lake.

       

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