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    湖北宜昌市降水时空分布特征及其变化趋势研究

    Study on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and variation trends of precipitation in Yichang City, Hubei Province

    • 摘要: 湖北宜昌市地处长江中上游亚热带季风气候区,降水时空分布受地形与季风环流的双重影响。基于1960—2024 年宜昌市降水数据,结合线性回归、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验及小波分析法,系统研究其降水时空分布特征及变化趋势。研究结果表明:年降水量以-0.230 7 mm/a的速率呈不显著下降趋势,其中汛期(5月1日至10月1日)和秋季降水量分别以-0.646 5 mm/a和-0.869 mm/a的速率下降,而春、夏、冬季降水量则呈微弱上升趋势。M-K 突变检验显示,春季降水量在1963—1964 年发生显著上升突变,秋季降水量在2004—2011 年显著下降;空间分布上,东北部及西南部山区降水呈上升趋势,东部、南部及西北部区域降水呈减少趋势。小波分析揭示了不同季节降水的主周期特征,年降水量、汛期、春季和夏季降水主周期分别为9 a、8 a、7 a和9 a,秋季和冬季则分别以24 a和49 a为第一主周期。研究结果为解析区域降水演变规律及气候变化响应提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Yichang City, Hubei Province is located in the subtropical monsoon climate zone of the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation is influenced by both terrain and monsoon circulation. Based on the precipitation data of Yichang City from 1960 to 2024, combined with linear regression, Mann Kendall(M-K) test, and wavelet analysis method, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and variation trends of precipitation are systematically studied. The research results indicate that the annual precipitation does not show a significant downward trend at a rate of -0.230 7 mm/a, with precipitation during the flood season (May 1st to October 1st) and autumn decreasing at rates of-0.646 5 mm/a and -0.869 mm/a, respectively, while precipitation in spring, summer, and winter shows a weak upward trend.The M-K mutation test showed a significant increase in spring precipitation from 1963 to 1964, and a significant decrease in autumn precipitation from 2004 to 2011; In terms of spatial distribution, precipitation in the northeastern and southwestern mountainous areas shows an upward trend, while precipitation in the eastern, southern, and northwestern regions shows a decreasing trend. Wavelet analysis reveals the main cycle characteristics of precipitation in different seasons, with annual precipitation, flood season, spring, and summer precipitation main cycles of 9 a, 8 a, 7 a, and 9 a, respectively. Autumn and winter are the first main cycles of 24 a and 49 a, respectively. The research results provide a scientific basis for analyzing the evolution of regional precipitation and the response to climate change.

       

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