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    山地河谷城市溃坝山洪风险分析研究

    Research on risk analysis of dam-break floods in mountainous river valley cities

    • 摘要: 山丘区小水库作为重要的水利设施,在防洪、灌溉等方面发挥着重要作用。然而,一旦发生溃坝,将对下游城市造成严重危害。以四川广元市为例,采用数值模拟方法,通过构建溃坝模型、水文模型和水动力模型,分析了水库溃坝对下游城区的影响。研究表明,山丘区小水库溃坝会对下游城市造成严重冲击,溃坝洪水最大流速超过15 m/s,对城市基础设施和居民生命财产安全构成重大威胁。对于坝下汇水面积较大的水库,溃坝洪水和下游降雨引起的山洪形成叠加效应,会对城市产生2次冲击,该类型水库一旦发生溃决将产生更为严重的灾害后果,需要重点防范。研究可为山丘区小水库的安全管理和城市防洪减灾提供理论依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: Small reservoirs in hilly areas serve as crucial water conservancy facilities, playing a significant role in flood control, irrigation, and other aspects. However, in the event of a dam breach, severe hazards to downstream cities can occur. This paper takes Guangyuan City as an example and employs numerical simulation methods to analyze the impact of reservoir dam breaches on downstream urban areas by constructing dam breach models, hydrological models, and hydrodynamic models. The study reveals that dam breaches in small reservoirs in hilly areas can cause severe impacts on downstream cities, with the maximum flow velocity of breach floods exceeding 15 m/s, posing a significant threat to urban infrastructure and the safety of residents' lives and property. For reservoirs with larger catchment areas downstream, the combined effect of breach floods and rainfallinduced flash floods can result in dual impacts on the city. Such reservoirs, if breached, can lead to more severe disaster consequences and require prioritized prevention measures. This research can provide theoretical foundations and decisionmaking support for the safety management of small reservoirs in hilly areas and urban flood disaster mitigation.

       

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