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    坡面泥石流隐患识别与风险评价——以重庆万州区太白溪小流域为例

    Identification of hidden dangers and risk assessment of slope debris flow—A case study of the Taibai Creek small watershed in Wanzhou District, Chongqing

    • 摘要: 2023年7月4日重庆万州长滩镇和2024年7月12日彭水普子镇先后遭遇极端强降雨,诱发的坡面泥石流造成较大人员伤亡和财产损失。坡面泥石流在地貌特征上与沟谷型泥石流存在显著差异,现有的泥石流调查评价方法主要针对沟谷型设计,亟须建立针对坡面泥石流的专项调查评价方法体系。通过解析坡面泥石流形成机理中的汇流量阈值、松散物质供给强度与坡度三者耦合作用关系,提出融合多源数据的一体化调查技术,构建“内业隐患识别—外业分级核查”逐级筛查流程,引入基岩风化程度、主沟纵坡降等15个量化指标,形成坡面泥石流的精细化评价体系,进而采用2023年“7·4”灾害发生地重庆万州太白溪小流域进行实证,成功识别出13处实际发生灾害的潜在坡面泥石流隐患点,表明该方法在复杂地质条件下具有一定的可靠性与适用性。

       

      Abstract: Changtan Town in Chongqing Wanzhou District and Puzi Town in Chongqing Pengshui County experienced extreme heavy rain on July 4, 2023 and July 12, 2024 respectively. Slope-type debris flows triggered by the heavy rainfall resulted in great casualties and economic loss. Slope-type debris flows exhibit significant geomorphological differences compared to gullytype debris flows. However, existing debris flow investigation and evaluation methods are primarily designed for gully-type debris flows, there is an urgent need to establish a specialized investigation and evaluation methodology designed for slope-type debris flows. This study analyzes the coupling relationship among three key factors in the formation mechanism of slope debris flows: runoff threshold, loose material supply intensity, and slope gradient. It proposes an integrated investigation technique incorporating multi-source data and constructs a step-by-step screening process from indoor hazard identification to on-site verification. By introducing 15 quantitative indicators such as bedrock weathering degree and main channel longitudinal gradient, a refined evaluation system suitable for slope-type debris flows is established. The method was validated using the Taibaixi small watershed in Chongqing Wanzhou county, where a disaster occurred on July 4, 2023. The study successfully identified 13 potential slope debris flow hazard points that had actually triggered disasters, demonstrating the reliability and applicability of this approach under complex geological conditions.

       

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