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    面向数智时代的决策气象服务研究——基于知识与数据协同驱动的范式转变与实践路径

    Research on meteorological decision-making services for the digital intelligence era—Paradigm shift and practical path driven by knowledge and data collaboration

    • 摘要: 首先对决策气象服务范式及其存在的知识和数据2种驱动机制进行了定义,并指出范式转变存在必然性、必要性和可行性;接着对比研究了知识与数据2种驱动力下决策气象服务范式在信息源、决策参与主体、判断逻辑和决策流程上的区别和优势,并分别给出控制规则的数理表达,进而引入复杂性架构理论论证范式转变的实践路径,指出在技术层面应满足动态分解原则和以因果规则为基础、关联规则为补充的逻辑判断准则,在应用层面应满足层级内强耦合、层级间弱耦合原则并架构面向场景式、精细化决策需求的数据治理共同体,在策略层面可部署知识为主数据为辅、知识与数据结合、数据为主知识为辅的动态协同驱动进程。研究结果为发展智能化气象服务应急减灾提供一种理论依据和实践路径。

       

      Abstract: Firstly, the meteorological decision-making services paradigm and its two driving mechanisms of knowledge and data were defined, and it was pointed out that paradigm shift is inevitable, necessary, and feasible; Then, a comparative study was conducted on the differences and advantages of the meteorological decision-making services paradigm under the two driving forces of knowledge and data in terms of information sources, decision-making participants, judgment logic, and decisionmaking processes. The mathematical expressions of control rules were given separately, and the Architecture of Complexity theory was introduced to demonstrate the practical path of paradigm shift. It was pointed out that at the technical level, dynamic decomposition principles and logical judgment criteria based on causal rules and supplemented by association rules should be met. At the application level, strong coupling within hierarchy and weak coupling between hierarchy should be met, and a data governance community oriented towards scenario based and refined decision-making needs should be constructed. At the strategic level, a dynamic collaborative driving process with knowledge as the main data supplement, knowledge and data combination, and data as the main knowledge supplement can be deployed. The research results provide a theoretical basis and practical path for the development of intelligent meteorological services for emergency disaster reduction.

       

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