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    1961—2023年宁夏暴雨变化特征研究

    Study on the characteristics of heavy rainstorm changes in Ningxia from 1961 to 2023

    • 摘要: 利用宁夏21个国家气象观测站1961—2023年的逐日降水量资料,对宁夏暴雨时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1961—2023年宁夏年平均暴雨量为53~87 mm,80 mm以上区域主要分布于盐池县东北部和固原市原州区,各地年暴雨站日数为3~49 d,大值区位于盐池县东南部、海原县、固原市;宁夏暴雨主要出现在7月上旬至8月中旬,全区平均暴雨量最大的月份为7月,但暴雨站日数最多为8月,其中8月第4候暴雨站日数最多,各市平均暴雨量和暴雨站日数的月、旬、候分布特征差异较大;1961—2023年宁夏年平均暴雨量、暴雨站日数随时间变化均呈不显著下降趋势,且未出现显著突变点;不同年代际来看,均表现为先下降后增加的特点,年平均暴雨量最小年代为21世纪初,暴雨站日数最少年代为20世纪80年代,两者均表现出阶段性的3 a左右和6 a左右周期。

       

      Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 21 national meteorological observation stations in Ningxia from 1961 to 2023, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of heavy rainstorm in Ningxia were analyzed. The results showed that the multi-year average annual heavy rainstorm amount in Ningxia ranged from 53 to 87 mm, with areas above 80 mm mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Yanchi and Yuanzhou District. The multi-year averaged number days of heavy rainstorm stations in Ningxia ranged from 3 to 49 days, with the high-value areas located in the southeast of Yanchi, Haiyuan, and Guyuan City, Yuanzhou District. Heavy rainstorm in Ningxia mainly occurred from the first ten days of July to the middle of August. The average annual heavy rainstorm amount in the whole region was the largest in July, but the number days of heavy rainstorm stations was the most in August, among which the fourth pentad of August had the most days with heavy rainstorm stations.The monthly, ten-day, and pentad distribution characteristics of the average heavy rainstorm amount and the number days of heavy rainstorm stations in various cities were quite different. The average heavy rainstorm amount and the number days of heavy rainstorm stations showed a non-significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2023 in Ningxia, and no significant abrupt change points were observed. From the perspective of different decades, both the average heavy rainstorm amount and the number days of heavy rainstorm stations showed the characteristics of first decreasing and then increasing. The decade with the smallest average heavy rainstorm amount was the early 21st century, and the decade with the fewest number days of heavy rainstorm stations was the 1980s. Both exhibited periods cycles of around about 3 years and 6 years.

       

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