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    1951—2024年鄱阳湖倒灌及其变化分析

    Analysis of backflow events and their changes in Poyang Lake from 1951 to 2024

    • 摘要: 实测水文资料统计显示1951—2024年鄱阳湖共出现143次倒灌。基于143次倒灌统计数据对鄱阳湖倒灌特征与分布格局进行分析,揭示近74 a来鄱阳湖倒灌变化规律与趋势,在此基础上讨论鄱阳湖倒灌条件及其变化。结果显示:鄱阳湖倒灌主要出现在7—9月湖口水位为12~16 m的中低水位时期,近74 a来鄱阳湖倒灌次数总体呈减少趋势,具体表现为1951—1970年倒灌频率总体呈上升趋势,1971—2010年倒灌频率总体呈下降趋势,2011年后倒灌频率又呈反弹(上升)趋势;倒灌持续时间呈缩短趋势,倒灌出现时间呈提前趋势。通过三峡水库运行前、后倒灌系列比较,对三峡水库运行前、后倒灌变化和三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖倒灌的影响进行了分析,表明三峡水库运行后鄱阳湖倒灌有所减少。

       

      Abstract: Statistical analysis based on measured hydrological data indicates that there were 143 backflow events in Poyang Lake from 1951 to 2024. Utilizing the statistics of these 143 events, this paper analyzes the characteristics and patterns of backflow in Poyang Lake, reveals the changing patterns and trends of backflow over the past 70 years, and discusses the conditions leading to backflow in Poyang Lake. The analysis shows that backflow primarily occurs during July to September when the water level at Hukou is in the medium-low range of 12~16 m. Over the past 74 years, the frequency of backflow events has generally shown a decreasing trend. Specifically, the frequency exhibited an overall increasing trend from 1951 to 1970, followed by a decreasing trend from 1971 to 2010, and then a rebound(increasing) trend after 2011. The duration of backflow events has shown a shortening trend, and the timing of their occurrence has exhibited an advancing trend.

       

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