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    1960—2024年澧水流域降水时空分布特征研究

    Spatial-temporal evolution of precipitation in Lishui River Basin during 1960—2024

    • 摘要: 利用1960—2024年国家气象站日降水数据,采用线性分析法、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、小波分析及经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法分析了澧水流域的降水趋势、周期性及旱涝特征、暴雨特性,结果表明:澧水流域近65 a年平均降水呈非显著变化趋势,年内降水分配不均,春、夏降水较多,秋、冬降水偏少,主要集中在6—7月;在5 a、25 a时间尺度上表现出显著周期性,干流上中游是降水一致变化的敏感区,地形因素对降水的分布有一定影响;年暴雨日数增加、大暴雨日数减少,但两者变化趋势均不显著,6月下旬是持续性暴雨过程的高发期,持续2 d的暴雨过程中溇水最多,持续3 d的暴雨过程中干流上中游最多;空间上总体呈西北多东南少的分布特征。研究结果可为流域防洪减灾和水资源优化配置提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Using daily precipitation data from national meteorological stations spanning 1960 to 2024, this study employed linear analysis, Mann-Kendall tests, wavelet analysis, and EOF decomposition to investigate precipitation climate trends, cyclical patterns, drought-flood characteristics, and storm characteristics in the Lishui River Basin. The findings provide critical references for flood control, disaster prevention, and optimal water resource allocation. Results indicate: Over the past 65 years,average precipitation in the basin has shown no significant trend, with uneven seasonal distribution—higher rainfall in spring and summer versus lower amounts in autumn and winter, particularly concentrated in June-July. Significant cyclical patterns were observed on 5-year and 25-year time scales, with the upper and middle reaches of the main channel being sensitive zones for consistent precipitation variations. Topographic factors influence precipitation distribution. The number of annual rainstorm days increased while heavy rain events decreased, though these trends lacked statistical significance. Late June saw frequent prolonged rain events, with 2-day events occurring most often in the small tributary basins, while 3-day events predominate in the upper and middle reaches of the main river. Spatially, precipitation distribution shows a northwest-dense, southeast-sparse pattern.

       

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