收录期刊

    高级检索

    利比亚德尔纳“2023·9”溃坝洪水复盘分析及对策建议

    Post-disaster review and mitigation strategies for the “2023·9” dam-break flood in Derna, Libya

    • 摘要: 为系统总结国际重大溃坝事件的经验教训,基于卫星降水、遥感影像及实测溃坝剖面等多元数据,结合预报调度一体化模型、一二维地表水动力学模型及多种溃口出流计算方法,对利比亚德尔纳市“2023·9”2座大坝连溃洪水事件进行全过程复盘。结果显示,受极端暴雨影响,上游曼苏尔水库于9月11日2:00左右达到满库状态,相应入库流量为2 634.4 m3/s,下游比拉德水库受区间洪水影响于2:15左右满库,模拟结果与官方报道吻合;约在2:30左右曼苏尔大坝溃坝,3:00溃口出流达到峰值24 476.4 m3/s;2:40左右,比拉德大坝受区间来水和上游溃坝洪水叠加冲击溃决,于3:15达到最大流量21 488.5 m3/s。溃坝洪水在约0.3 h后演进至德尔纳城区,造成广泛漫溢,模拟最大淹没面积约2.55 km2,与遥感影像统计结果高度一致。复盘结果揭示了极端降水条件下梯级水库连溃的关键机制,为我国水库大坝安全管理提供了重要参考。

       

      Abstract: This study conducts a retrospective analysis of the flood processes caused by the failure of two dams in Libya to provide insights for dam safety management in China. By integrating satellite precipitation, remote sensing imagery, and measured breach cross-sections—with forecasting-operation, hydrodynamic and breach models, the entire flood process was reproduced. The results indicate that the upstream Al-Mansour Dam reached full capacity around 2:00 on September 11, with an inflow of 2 634.4 m3/s. The downstream Bilad Reservoir also reached full storage around 2: 15 due to intermediate inflows,consistent with official reports. The Al-Mansour Dam failed at approximately 2:30, with breach outflow peaking at 24 476.4 m3/s by 03:00. Around 2:40, the Bilad Dam was breached under the combined effect of intermediate flow and the floodwave from the upstream dam failure, reaching a peak discharge of 21 488.5 m3/s at 3:15. The dam-break floodwave reached Derna about 0.3 hours later, causing extensive overbank flooding, with a simulated maximum inundation area of approximately 2.55 km2—closely matching remote sensing observations. This reconstruction reveals key mechanisms of cascading dam failures under extreme precipitation, offering critical references for enhancing reservoir and dam safety management in China.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回