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    海河“25·7”区域性大洪水模拟复盘分析

    Simulation and post-analysis of the "25·7" regional major flood in the Haihe River Basin

    • 摘要: 2025 年7 月下旬至8 月上旬,海河流域发生区域性大洪水,大清河、蓟运河、潮白河、北运河等流域发生多次洪水过程。基于中国山洪水文模型(China Flash Flood Hydrological Model,CNFF),对流域重要断面进行洪水复盘计算,分析误差原因。结果表明:CNFF 模型在多数流域站点表现出高精度和可靠性,适用于海河流域洪水模拟计算;模型计算误差主要来源于流域特异性差异、降雨预报精度、流域初始状态等因素。基于误差分析,模型优化应聚焦于提升降雨数据空间分辨率以减少平滑效应、细化大面积流域单元划分、针对不同下垫面类型调整参数、在模拟计算时考虑流域初始状态的影响。

       

      Abstract: From late July to early August 2025, a regional major flood event occurred in the Haihe River Basin, with multiple flood processes observed in sub-basins including the Daqing River, Jiyun River, Chaobai River and Beiyun River. Leveraging the China Flash Flood Hydrological Model (CNFF), a retrospective analysis and calculation of floods were performed for key cross-sections within the basin, aiming to identify the sources of simulation errors. The results indicate that the CNFF model exhibits high precision and reliability at most monitoring stations across the basin, thereby proving its suitability for flood simulation in the Haihe River Basin. The primary contributors to model calculation errors include disparities in basin characteristics, inaccuracies in rainfall data input and variations in initial basin conditions. Based on the error analysis, model optimization should prioritize the following aspects: enhancing the spatial resolution of rainfall data to mitigate the smoothing effect; refining the unit division of large-scale basins; adjusting model parameters according to different underlying surface types and incorporating the influence of initial basin conditions into the simulation process.

       

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