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    面向预警命中率的小流域山洪EA-LSTM预报方法——以湖北十堰市官山河流域为例

    A hit-rate-oriented EA-LSTM method for flash flood forecasting in a small watershed—Taking the Guanshan River Basin in Shiyan City, Hubei Province as an example

    • 摘要: 山区中小流域汇流时间短、监测站网稀疏,突发性山洪往往来不及预警,漏报问题突出。以湖北十堰市官山河流域为例,整合2010—2025年逐小时地面观测与全球降水观测计划(GPM)、高分辨率陆地再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)、中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)多源遥感数据,构建以实体感知长短时记忆网络(EA-LSTM)为主干的山洪预警方法。与多数研究不同,本研究将持续性基线Q (t+k)=Q (t)作为强制对照,并以事件级预警指标作为核心评价维度。在独立测试集(2022年1月至2025年1月,26 343 h、23场洪水事件,8种子稳健性实验),本方法在t+6 h预见期的临界成功指数(CSI)较持续性基线提升0.072,误报率(FAR)相对下降38.4%,命中率(POD)提高3.4个百分点;持续性技巧分数(PSS)全预见期中位数为负,表明本方法在连续拟合指标上并不优于持续性基线,其价值体现在业务关注的事件级告警维度。消融实验表明,时间卷积编码主要压缩长预见期纳什效率系数(NSE)方差,EA门控则将长预见期NSE均值抬升至正值。研究结果表明:在高自相关流量序列中,NSE不是山洪预警能力最合适的代表指标,业务评估应以CSI、POD、FAR为主。

       

      Abstract: The convergence time of small and medium-sized watersheds in mountainous areas is short, and the monitoring station network is sparse. Sudden flash floods often cannot be warned in time, and the problem of underreporting is prominent. Taking the Guanshan River Basin in Shiyan City, Hubei Province as an example, a flash flood warning method based on the Entity Sensing Long Short Term Memory Network (EA-LSTM) was constructed by integrating hourly ground observations from 2010 to 2025 with the Global Precipitation Monitoring Program (GPM), the High Resolution Land Reanalysis Dataset (ERA5-Land), and the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) multi-source remote sensing data. Unlike most studies, this study uses a persistent baseline Q (t+k) =Q (t) as a mandatory control and event level warning indicators as the core evaluation dimension. In an independent test set (January 2022 to January 2025, 26 343 hours, 23 flood events, 8 sub robustness experiments), this method showed an improvement of 0.072 in critical success index (CSI) compared to the sustainability baseline during the (t+6) hour foresight period, a relative decrease of 38.4% in false alarm rate (FAR), and an increase of 3.4 percentage points in hit rate (POD); The median of the Continuity Skills Score (PSS) for the entire foreseeable period is negative, indicating that this method is not superior to the Continuity Baseline in terms of continuous fitting metrics, and its value is reflected in the event level alert dimension of business attention. The ablation experiment showed that time convolutional encoding mainly compresses the variance of the long foresight Nash Sacliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE), while EA gating raises the median of the long foresight NSE to a positive value. The research results indicate that in high autocorrelation traffic sequences, NSE is not the most suitable representative indicator for flash flood warning capability, and business evaluation should mainly focus on CSI, POD, and FAR.

       

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