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    水文—水动力耦合的泥石流流深与流速计算方法

    Calculation method for flow depth and velocity of debris flow based on hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling

    • 摘要: 山区小流域泥石流突发性强且传统预报手段难以实现连续动态模拟。基于水文过程与水动力过程间的等价关系,融合产流模型(Modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method,MSCS-CN)、马斯京根流量法与运动波方程构建分布式泥石流动力过程计算模型(Distributed Dynamics Calculation Model,DDCM),以四川凉山州秦家湾沟泥石流为研究区,实现了降雨驱动下泥石流运动演进过程的快速计算。结果表明:计算流动深度最大误差为0.029 m,流速最大误差为0.21 m/s,验证了模型在泥石流起动、演化与运移过程反演中的精度与物理合理性,可为复杂山区小流域泥石流的实时预报、风险识别及防控提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Because debris flows in catchments are highly sudden and conventional forecasting approaches have difficulty achieving continuous dynamic simulation, this study developed a distributed dynamics calculation model for debris-flow processes (Distributed Dynamics Calculation Model, DDCM) based on the equivalence relationship between hydrological and hydrodynamic processes. The model integrates the Modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (MSCS-CN), the Muskingum flow routing method, and the kinematic wave equation. Taking the Qinjiawan debris-flow catchment in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, as the study area, the model achieved rapid simulation of the rainfall-driven evolution of debris-flow movement. The results show that the maximum error in flow depth was 0.029 m and the maximum error in flow velocity was 0.21 m/s, demonstrating the model's accuracy and physical reliability in initiation, evolution, and transport processes of debris flows. The proposed model can provide scientific support for real-time forecasting, risk identification, and disaster mitigation and prevention in debris-flow in small watersheds in complex mountainous regions.

       

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