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    2004—2024年四川省极端强降水时空分布特征

    Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme heavy precipitation in Sichuan Province from 2004 to 2024

    • 摘要: 基于四川省148个国家气象站2004—2024年的逐小时降水资料,采用百分位法界定极端降水阈值,分析了四川省近20年极端强降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:①四川省小时最大降水量和日最大降水量均呈现显著的经向分异特征,东部盆地地区明显高于西部高原山区,高值区集中分布于成都、德阳、雅安东部等地,庐山站小时最大降水量达134.60 mm,为全省最高。②通过对比98%、99%、99.5%分位数阈值,发现99.5%分位数更能有效捕捉各站点的极端强降水事件,其阈值普遍在30 mm/h以上,中位数达30.76 mm/h,对应极端降水强度中位数达40.00 mm/h。③多时间尺度累计降水量同样呈现东高西低的空间格局,3 h、6 h、12 h、24 h累计降水量最大值分别达324.2 mm、402.8 mm、423.5 mm、428.6 mm。④极端强降水的月变化呈“中间高、两头低”的单峰型特征,7月频次最高(占比38.60%),5月强度最大(40.2 mm/h);日变化表现为双峰型,频次高峰出现在凌晨2—3时,强度峰值出现在9时。

       

      Abstract: Based on hourly precipitation data from 148 national meteorological stations in Sichuan Province during 2004—2024, this study employed the percentile method to define extreme precipitation thresholds and systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme short-duration heavy rainfall (ESDHR) in Sichuan Province. The results showed that: ① Both hourly and daily maximum precipitation in Sichuan Province exhibited significant meridional differentiation, with the eastern basin being significantly higher than the western plateau mountainous area. High-value areas were concentrated in Chengdu, Deyang, eastern Ya'an, Leshan, and northern Yibin. The Lushan station recorded the highest hourly maximum precipitation in the province, reaching 134.60 mm. ② By comparing the 98%, 99%, and 99.5% percentile thresholds, the 99.5% percentile was determined as the appropriate standard for defining ESDHR in Sichuan. The spatial distribution of this threshold also showed a pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west, with 50.68% of stations having thresholds concentrated between 30~40 mm/h, and the highest value of 43.84 mm/h observed at Pengzhou Station. The median precipitation intensity exceeding the threshold reached 40.00 mm/h, with 50% of stations exhibiting intensities above 40 mm/h. ③ Multi-timescale accumulated precipitation also displayed a pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. The maximum accumulated precipitation values for 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h were 324.2 mm, 402.8 mm, 423.5 mm, and 428.6 mm, respectively, with high-value centers stably located in the Chengdu Plain and its surrounding areas. ④ The monthly variation of ESDHR exhibited a unimodal pattern characterized by "high in the middle and low at both ends," with the highest frequency occurring in July (accounting for 38.60%) and the highest intensity in May (40.2 mm/h). The diurnal variation showed a bimodal pattern characterized by high frequency at night and strong intensity in the morning, with frequency peaks occurring at 02:00—03:00 and the intensity peak at 09:00. These findings can provide scientific references for extreme precipitation disaster prevention and climate change response in Sichuan Province.

       

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