Abstract:
Based on hourly precipitation data from 148 national meteorological stations in Sichuan Province during 2004—2024, this study employed the percentile method to define extreme precipitation thresholds and systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme short-duration heavy rainfall (ESDHR) in Sichuan Province. The results showed that: ① Both hourly and daily maximum precipitation in Sichuan Province exhibited significant meridional differentiation, with the eastern basin being significantly higher than the western plateau mountainous area. High-value areas were concentrated in Chengdu, Deyang, eastern Ya'an, Leshan, and northern Yibin. The Lushan station recorded the highest hourly maximum precipitation in the province, reaching 134.60 mm. ② By comparing the 98%, 99%, and 99.5% percentile thresholds, the 99.5% percentile was determined as the appropriate standard for defining ESDHR in Sichuan. The spatial distribution of this threshold also showed a pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west, with 50.68% of stations having thresholds concentrated between 30~40 mm/h, and the highest value of 43.84 mm/h observed at Pengzhou Station. The median precipitation intensity exceeding the threshold reached 40.00 mm/h, with 50% of stations exhibiting intensities above 40 mm/h. ③ Multi-timescale accumulated precipitation also displayed a pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. The maximum accumulated precipitation values for 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h were 324.2 mm, 402.8 mm, 423.5 mm, and 428.6 mm, respectively, with high-value centers stably located in the Chengdu Plain and its surrounding areas. ④ The monthly variation of ESDHR exhibited a unimodal pattern characterized by "high in the middle and low at both ends," with the highest frequency occurring in July (accounting for 38.60%) and the highest intensity in May (40.2 mm/h). The diurnal variation showed a bimodal pattern characterized by high frequency at night and strong intensity in the morning, with frequency peaks occurring at 02:00—03:00 and the intensity peak at 09:00. These findings can provide scientific references for extreme precipitation disaster prevention and climate change response in Sichuan Province.