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    山洪流量分级产输沙模拟方法及应用

    Simulation method and application of graded sediment yield and transport for flash flood flows

    • 摘要: 山洪产输沙过程受坡面侵蚀,河道输移、沉积和再搬运等多因素共同控制,具有显著的非线性特征。现有模拟方法多采用单一“流量—输沙量”关系或统一转换系数进行整体拟合,难以区分不同洪水量级下产沙—输沙关系差异,且易受低流量样本主导,导致高量级洪水模拟不稳定;而完全机理化模型参数需求高,在工程中应用受限。针对以上问题,以四川省寿溪河流域为研究对象,构建了“坡面产沙—河道输移”的2阶段模型:第1阶段采用修正通用土壤流失方程(MUSLE)计算降雨驱动下的各场次洪水逐日产沙量;第2阶段提出分级综合转移系数(TSC)方法刻画河道中的输移、沉积与再搬运过程,将洪水划分为4个量级Ⅰ~Ⅳ,分级建立产沙量向出口输沙量的定量转换关系。研究结果表明:MUSLE模型可在日尺度上有效刻画山区流域单场次洪水的坡面产沙动态;在此基础上,分级TSC方法进一步将逐日产沙量转换为出口输沙量,率定期模拟精度较高(纳什效率系数NSE为0.940,拟合优度R2为0.942),验证期亦保持良好精度(NSE为0.818,R2为0.860),模拟残差总体围绕零线对称分布、无明显系统性偏差,残差绝对值随实测输沙量的增大呈合理的放大趋势,模型对流域跨量级输沙过程的整体刻画保持稳健。该方法通过引入流量分级刻画产输沙关系的量级差异,在不显著增加机理参数需求的前提下,提高了模型的结构清晰性、物理可解释性和高量级洪水模拟稳健性,可为山区山洪泥沙灾害预警预报及流域综合管理提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The process of flash flood sediment yield and transport is controlled by multiple factors such as slope erosion, river transport, sedimentation, and re transportation, and has significant nonlinear characteristics. Existing simulation methods often use a single "flow sediment transport" relationship or a unified conversion coefficient for overall fitting, which makes it difficult to distinguish the differences in sediment production sediment transport relationships under different flood levels, and is easily dominated by low flow samples, leading to instability in simulating high-level floods; However, fully mechanized models have high parameter requirements and are limited in their application in engineering. In response to the above issues, a two-stage model of "slope sediment yield river transport" was constructed using the Shouxi River Basin in Sichuan Province as the research object. In the first stage, the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) was used to calculate the daily sediment yield of each flood driven by rainfall; In the second stage, the graded comprehensive transfer coefficient (TSC) method is proposed to characterize the transport, sedimentation, and retransport processes in river channels. Floods are divided into four levels I to IV, and a quantitative conversion relationship between sediment production and outlet sediment transport is established through grading. The research results indicate that the MUSLE model can effectively characterize the slope sediment yield dynamics of single floods in mountainous watersheds on a daily scale; On this basis, the graded TSC method further converts daily sediment discharge into export sediment discharge, with high simulation accuracy during the calibration period (Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.940, goodness of fit R2 of 0.942), and also maintains good accuracy during the validation period (Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.818, goodness of fit R2 of 0.860). The simulated residuals are generally symmetrically distributed around the zero line, with no obvious systematic deviation. The absolute value of the residuals shows a reasonable amplification trend with the increase of measured sediment discharge, and the model maintains a robust characterization of the cross scale sediment transport process in the watershed. This method introduces flow classification to characterize the magnitude differences in the relationship between yield, transportation, and sediment. Without significantly increasing the demand for mechanism parameters, it improves the structural clarity, physical interpretability, and robustness of the model for simulating high-level floods. It can provide reference for early warning and forecasting of flash flood and sediment disasters in mountainous areas, as well as comprehensive watershed management.

       

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