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    基于暴雨—成灾水位的山洪灾害预警体系构建及应用

    Construction and application of a flash flood disasters early warning system based on heavy rainfall and disaster water levels

    • 摘要: 针对乡镇山洪灾害预警靶向性和时效性不足的问题,基于浙江省山区流域特性,提出了一套基于暴雨阈值的山洪影响乡镇预警规则体系。该体系根据乡镇集雨面积确定不同预警时段,通过乡镇代表断面的成灾水位及其对应的洪水频率评估确定乡镇的防洪能力;采用暴雨洪水同频率假设确定红色预警阈值,综合考虑汇流特性与转移时间确定黄色预警阈值。以浙江文成县玉壶镇为例,阐述了在典型小流域的理论应用设想。研究成果可为类似山丘区乡镇精细化山洪预警提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Aiming at the problem of insufficient targeting and timeliness of early warning of flash flood disasters in villages and towns, based on the characteristics of mountain basins in Zhejiang Province, a set of early warning rules system of flash flood affecting villages and towns based on rainstorm threshold was proposed. The system determines different warning periods based on the catchment area of townships, and evaluates the flood control capacity of townships by assessing the disaster water level and corresponding flood frequency of representative sections of townships; The assumption that rainstorm and flood have the same frequency is used to determine the red early warning threshold, and the yellow early warning threshold is determined by comprehensively considering the convergence characteristics and transfer time. Taking Yuhu Town in Wencheng County, Zhejiang Province as an example, this paper expounds the theoretical application hypothesis in typical small watersheds. The research results can provide technical reference for refined flash flood early warning in similar mountainous towns

       

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