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    北方地区极端强降水特征及其预报预警业务

    Characteristics of extreme heavy rainfall in northern China and its forecast and early warning operation

    • 摘要: 近年来,我国季风雨带北移,北方地区的极端强降水事件增多且过程特征各异,引发的区域性洪水和局地山洪灾害时空变化复杂,加剧了洪涝灾害防御难度。以北方典型极端强降水事件为例,系统归纳其降水强度、持续时间、总降水量等特征,揭示了产生极端强降水的天气成因,并指出了我国目前在极端强降水预报预警业务中存在的问题与发展思路,可为极端强降水过程预报预警业务发展与洪涝灾害防御提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, The monsoon belt in China has shifted northward, leading to an increase in extreme heavy rainfall events in northern regions, each with distinct process characteristics. The resulting regional and mountain flood disasters show complex spatiotemporal variations, greatly increasing the difficulty of flood disaster prevention. Taking typical extreme heavy rainfall events in northern China as examples, this paper systematically summarizes their characteristics in intensity, duration and total precipitation, reveals the synoptic mechanisms and analyzes the existing problems and future development directions of current operational forecasting and early warning services for extreme heavy rainfall in China. The results can provide technical support for the development of forecasting and early warning services for extreme heavy precipitation processes and flood disaster prevention.

       

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