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    洪水巨灾特征演变与风险评估方法研究综述

    A review of the evolution of catastrophic flood disaster characteristics and risk assessment methods

    • 摘要: 在气候变化与人类活动的叠加作用下,洪水风险逐渐呈现出非平稳特征,其巨灾特征也随之表现出低频高损、空间相关性及损失链式效应等复杂属性,已成为制约区域安全及可持续发展的重要因素。基于文献综述方法,系统梳理了洪水巨灾特征演变规律及其风险评估方法的研究进展,分析了频率统计、水文—水动力耦合模拟、模型结构优化与参数改进、空间数据驱动与区域泛化等方法体系的发展现状与适用性,并探讨了不同方法的不确定性来源。针对当前研究中不确定性量化不足、传播路径不清等问题,提出未来研究应聚焦于多源不确定性协同分析、不确定性级联传导机制解析,以及物理约束与数据驱动融合建模等方向。

       

      Abstract: Under the combined effect of climate change and human activities, flood risks have gradually shown non-stationary characteristics, and their catastrophic features have also exhibited complex attributes such as low frequency and high loss,spatial correlation and loss chain effects, which have become important factors restricting regional security and sustainable development. Based on the literature review method, this paper systematically summarizes the research progress on the evolution law of flood disaster characteristics and risk assessment methods, analyzes the development status and applicability of methods such as frequency statistics, hydrological hydrodynamic coupling simulation, model structure optimization and parameter improvement, spatial data-driven and regional generalization, and explores the sources of uncertainty of different methods. In response to the problems of insufficient uncertainty quantification and unclear propagation paths in current research, it is proposed that future research should focus on collaborative analysis of multiple sources of uncertainty, analysis of uncertainty cascading transmission mechanisms, and modeling of physical constraints and data-driven fusion.

       

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