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    天津沿海高分辨率风暴潮模拟及预警研究

    Research on high-resolution storm surge simulation and early warning along the coast of Tianjin

    • 摘要: 天津沿海风暴潮增水过程受台风路径、海岸地形及天文潮汐耦合作用影响显著。为提升区域风暴潮灾害预报与防御能力,基于MIKE21 Flow Model水动力模型耦合Young&Sobey台风风场模型,构建天津沿海高分辨率风暴潮数值模型,并以2306号台风“卡努”过程为典型案例开展模拟研究。结果表明:模拟潮位与实测潮位吻合较好,相关系数为0.91,均方根误差为0.12 m;天津沿海风暴潮增水具有显著空间差异,海河河口区域受地形瓶颈效应影响,最大增水可达2.8 m,明显高于东部开阔滩涂区域;不同台风路径对高潮位及淹没范围影响显著,其中西北路径情景下最大水位达4.2 m,超出现行防洪标准;基于模拟结果,进一步构建了天津沿海风暴潮分区分级预警方案,可为区域防汛抗旱、港口运行安全及海岸防护工程提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: The process of storm surge increase along the coast of Tianjin is significantly influenced by the coupling effect of typhoon path, coastal terrain, and astronomical tides. To enhance the ability to forecast and defend against regional storm surge disasters, a high-resolution storm surge numerical model for the Tianjin coastal area was constructed based on the MIKE21 Flow Model coupled with the Young & Sobey typhoon wind field model. Simulation studies were conducted using the typical case of Typhoon "Khanun"(No. 2306). The results show that the simulated tide level is in good agreement with the measured tide level,the correlation coefficient is 0.91, and the root mean square error is 0.12 m. There is a significant spatial difference in the storm surge surge in Tianjin coastal area. Affected by the topographic bottleneck effect, the maximum surge in the Haihe River estuary area can reach 2.8 m, which is significantly higher than the eastern mudflat area; Different typhoon paths have a significant impact on high tide levels and inundation ranges, with the maximum water level reaching 4.2 meters in the northwest path scenario, exceeding current flood control standards; Based on the simulation results, a hierarchical warning scheme for storm surge zoning along the Tianjin coast was further constructed, which can provide technical support for regional flood control and drought resistance, port operation safety, and coastal protection engineering.

       

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