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    珠江流域片暴雨山洪致灾特征及其防御对策探究

    Characteristics of rainstorm-induced flash flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin Region and corresponding prevention strategies

    • 摘要: 珠江流域片暴雨山洪致灾风险突出,其致灾特征与成灾模式呈显著的空间分异性。结合孕灾环境与山洪灾害案例分析,从山洪灾害链演化、隐患普查、监测感知、预警模拟及应急响应5个维度进行探究。结果表明,上游高山峡谷区以山洪泥石流复合型灾害链为主,云贵高原斜坡区兼有岩溶内涝与滑坡—泥石流转化2种模式,中低山丘陵区以群发性山洪地质灾害为特征,海南穹隆区以台风型暴雨山洪淹没为主要致灾形式。当前该区域山洪灾害防御体系仍面临灾害链转化阈值不明、隐患底数不清、监测覆盖不全、预警指标适应性不足及差异化应急预案缺失等关键瓶颈。为此,提出构建针对不同区域特点的分区分类精细化防御体系:上游高山峡谷区构建“物源普查—过程感知—递进预警”三位一体体系,云贵高原斜坡区突破地下河探测与滑坡—泥石流转化预警技术,中低山丘陵区建立群发风险动态场与多目标优化调度模型,海南穹隆区发展台风集合预报驱动的概率预警与靶向推送技术。

       

      Abstract: The Pearl River Basin is highly prone to rainstorm-induced flash flood disasters, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity in both disaster-forming processes and hazard manifestation patterns. Based on integrated analyses of hazardprone geomorphic settings and typical flash flood events, this study examines disaster chain evolution, hazard source inventorying, monitoring and sensing, early warning modeling, and emergency response across five dimensions. The results show that the alpine gorge region of the upper reaches is characterized by a complex flash flood-debris flood chain. The YunnanGuizhou Plateau slope region features two coexisting patterns—karst waterlogging and landslide-debris flow transformation. The mid‑low mountainous region is marked by clustered flash flood-geological disasters, and the Hainan dome region is dominated by typhoon-driven flash flood inundation. Current defense systems in the region face several critical bottlenecks, including unclear thresholds for disaster chain transformation, incomplete hazard inventories, insufficient monitoring coverage, poor adaptability of early warning indices, and a lack of region-specific emergency plans. To address these challenges, a refined defense system with zoning and classification is proposed. For the alpine gorge region of the upper reaches, a trinity system integrating material source inventory, process sensing, and progressive early warning is recommended. In the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau slope region, technical advancements are needed in subsurface river detection and early warning of landslide-debris flow transformation. For the mid‑low mountainous region, a dynamic clustered-risk field and a multi-objective optimization model should be developed. In the Hainan dome region, probabilistic early warning driven by typhoon ensemble forecasts and targeted push technology should be implemented.

       

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