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    甘肃榆中县2025年“8·7”山洪泥石流灾害链转化过程与防控对策

    The transformation process and prevention and control countermeasures of the "8·7" flash flood and debris flow disaster in Yuzhong County, Gansu Province in 2025

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,我国西部山区暖湿化趋势明显,极端强降雨触发的山洪泥石流灾害链风险显著增加。然而,山洪泥石流灾害链包含多阶段流态演变,传统监测手段难以捕捉灾害链转化全过程,导致对此类灾害链防控能力不足。以2025年8月7—8日甘肃榆中县兴隆河流域山洪泥石流灾害链为研究对象,通过现场调查和遥感解译,从极端强降雨、坡面—沟道多物源起动、沟道临时堵溃及人类活动等方面分析了灾害链的成因,计算出滑坡与沟道总物源供应量达114万m3,充足物源导致山洪规模与固体浓度激增转化为泥石流,沟道临时堵溃导致泥石流峰值流量约2 732 m3/s。在此基础上,利用该事件产生的地震动信号,揭示了灾害呈现“山洪—泥石流—山洪”的互转特征,并阐明了灾害多流态的时空演化过程。针对此类灾害链,建议未来构建“空—天—地—深”一体化的物源早期识别技术体系,建立基于地震动的监测预警模型,开展灾害链风险评估及沟道人类活动排查等,加强西部山区强降雨诱发山洪泥石流灾害链的防控水平。

       

      Abstract: Under the background of global climate change, mountainous areas in western China show an obvious warming and wetting trend, and the risk of flash flood and debris flow disaster chains triggered by extreme heavy rainfall continues to rise. Such disaster chains experience multi-stage flow regime evolution, and traditional monitoring methods fail to capture their entire transformation process, resulting in inadequate prevention and control capacity. Taking the flash flood and debris flow disaster chain that occurred in the Xinglong River Basin of Yuzhong County on August 7, 2025 as the research object, this paper analyzes its formation causes from the perspectives of extreme heavy rainfall, multi-source initiation on slopes and in channels, temporary channel blockage and breaching, and human activities based on field investigation and remote sensing interpretation. The total volume of loose materials supplied by landslides and channel deposits is calculated to be 1.14×106 m3. Abundant loose materials sharply increased the magnitude and solid concentration of flash floods, which further evolved into debris flows, and temporary channel blockage and breaching pushed the peak discharge of debris flows to approximately 2 732 m3/s. On this basis, seismic ground motion signals generated during the event are adopted to reveal the mutual transformation characteristics of the disaster in the form of "flash flood-debris flow-flash flood" and illustrate the spatiotemporal evolution of multiple flow regimes. Targeting this type of disaster chain, this paper proposes to establish an integrated early identification system for material sources combining space, airborne, ground and in-situ monitoring, build a monitoring and early warning model based on seismic ground motion, carry out risk assessment of disaster chains and inspect human activities in channels. The research findings can help improve the prevention and control capacity of flash flood and debris flow disaster chains induced by heavy rainfall in mountainous areas of western China.

       

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