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    基于手机信令数据的北京“23·7”特大暴雨事件城市出行影响评估

    Assessment of the impacts of the Beijing "23·7" extreme rainstorm event on urban mobility based on mobile phone signaling data

    • 摘要: 极端暴雨洪涝事件可通过扰动居民出行行为显著影响城市运行效率。为精细刻画强降雨影响下城市出行受损特征,以北京市“23·7”特大暴雨事件为例,综合利用高分辨率定量降水反演产品与手机信令起讫数据,构建城市网格尺度出行量受损率和受损时长指标,定量分析不同功能分区、降雨等级和日内时段下的人群出行响应差异。结果表明:暴雨事件显著削弱了各功能分区出行总量,但未改变“早高峰—日间回落—晚高峰”的基本日内节律;居住用地的绝对人流损失最为突出,商务办公和公园绿地次之,表明城市通勤活动与休闲游憩出行受暴雨抑制。基于人流量损失特征分析,商业服务用地相对受损率最高且受损时长最长,居住、教育和医疗用地亦表现出较高受损水平。不同等级暴雨影响下人群出行受损响应呈现非线性特征,其中居住用地、商务办公等对降雨扰动较为敏感,且早晚高峰集中出行会放大降雨对人群出行的抑制效应。研究结果可为极端暴雨情景下城市分区分时交通管控、公共服务保障与韧性提升提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Extreme rainstorm and flood events can significantly affect urban operational efficiency by disrupting residents, travel behavior. In order to accurately describe the characteristics of urban travel damage under the influence of heavy rainfall, take the "23·7" extremely heavy rainstorm event in Beijing as an example, and integrates high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation products with origin-destination data derived from mobile phone signaling. Grid-scale indicators of travel-volume loss rate and disruption duration were developed to quantitatively analyze the differences in population travel response under different functional zones, rainfall levels, and intraday time periods. The results show that the rainstorm event significantly reduced total travel volumes across all functional zones,while the basic diurnal rhythm of "morning peak-daytime declineevening peak" remained unchanged. Residential areas exhibited the largest absolute loss, followed by business office areas and parks/greenspaces, indicating that both commuting activities and leisure-recreation trips were markedly suppressed. Further analysis of mobility loss characteristics shows that commercial areas had the highest loss rate and the longest disruption duration,while residential, educational,and medical areas also experienced relatively high levels of mobility disruption. The impacts of different rainstorm levels on mobility displayed nonlinear characteristics. Residential and business office areas were particularly sensitive to rainfall disturbance,and concentrated travel during morning and evening peaks amplified the suppressive effect of rainfall on human mobility. These findings provide scientific support for spatially and temporally differentiated traffic management,public service guarantee,and urban resilience enhancement under extreme rainstorm scenarios.

       

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