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    复杂地形山区山洪灾害预警人工智能技术应用进展

    Research progress in the application of AI technologies for flash flood disaster early-warning in mountainous regions with complex terrain

    • 摘要: 针对复杂地形山区山洪致灾过程快、预见期短、预警难度大等问题,按照“前期预警—短临预警—动态预警—风险预警”的时序逻辑,系统梳理了人工智能技术在气象预报、雨量监测、洪水预报和知识推理等方面的研究进展。研究发现,人工智能技术正推动山洪灾害预警由经验阈值判识向多源数据融合、过程机理耦合和风险智能推演等方向转变,提升了降雨预报、洪水模拟和智能决策能力。然而,复杂地形山区山洪预警仍面临极端降雨样本稀缺、跨流域模型及参数迁移困难、业务部署受限等问题。未来研究应加强气象水文与山洪灾害链的协同建模,发展物理机制约束的迁移学习方法,提升山洪灾害预警人工智能模型的风险管控能力,进而提高山洪灾害预警模型的精度、泛化能力、可信度与实用性。

       

      Abstract: In response to the problems of fast disaster causing process, short prediction period, and difficulty in early warning of flash floods in complex terrain mountainous areas, the research progress of artificial intelligence technology in meteorological forecasting, rainfall monitoring, flood forecasting, and knowledge reasoning has been systematically summarized according to the temporal logic of "early warning-short-term warning-dynamic warning-risk warning". The research has found that Artificial Intelligence(AI) is driving a transition in flash flood early warning from empirical threshold-based identification toward multisource data fusion, process-mechanism coupling, and intelligent risk inference, thereby improving rainfall forecasting, flood simulation, and decision-support capabilities. However, flash flood warning in complex mountainous regions still faces major challenges, including the scarcity of extreme rainfall samples, difficulties in cross-basin process transfer, and constraints on operational deployment. Future research should strengthen collaborative modeling of meteorological, hydrological, and flashflood disaster-chain processes, develop physically constrained transfer learning methods, and improve risk governance for AIbased warning models. These advances will enhance the accuracy, generalization capacity, reliability, and practical applicability of flash flood early-warning models.

       

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