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    基于水动力淹没模拟的人员避险转移优化研究

    Research on optimization of personnel evacuation and transfer based on hydrodynamic submersion simulation

    • 摘要: 极端暴雨下山洪灾害突发性强、预测难度高,极易导致群死群伤事件,对山区人民生命财产安全构成重大威胁。科学制定应急疏散方案对于提高山洪灾害应急避险能力至关重要,如何通过模拟山洪灾害中的避险转移过程来增强转移行动的实效性、减少人员伤亡,已成为山洪灾害研究领域亟待解决的核心课题。以北京市昌平区流村镇作为研究区域,耦合水动力模型InfoWorks ICM及人员疏散仿真模型Life Safety Model(LSM)建立洪水速度、深度与建筑物及不同人群稳定性之间的关系,模拟洪水演进过程中人员伤亡、跌倒与安全等状态变化,分析预警提前量、道路中断及安全屋布局等因素对转移效率的影响。结果表明,在多路线、可优化安置的村庄通过在适宜区域增设避险转移点、对易积水等危险路段实施临时封闭等方式能够显著提升人员撤离成功率,最多可提升55%,但是针对单一道路的村庄需要采用提前预警方式来提升人员撤离成功率。

       

      Abstract: Flash flood disasters triggered by extreme rainstorms are highly sudden and difficult to predict,often leading to mass casualties and posing a significant threat to the safety of life and property in mountainous regions. A scientifically sound emergency evacuation plan is key to improving the effectiveness of flash flood risk avoidance. Enhancing the efficiency of emergency evacuation and reducing casualty rates through the simulation of flash flood emergency evacuation has become a critical issue in flash flood disaster research. This study takes Liucun Town,Changping District,Beijing,as the study area. By coupling the InfoWorks ICM hydrodynamic model and the Loss of Life Simulation Model(LSM),the relationships among flood velocity,water depth,building characteristics,and the stability of different population groups were established. The study simulates the changes in the states of death,fall,and safety of personnel during flood propagation,and analyzes the effects of warning lead time,road disruptions,and shelter placement on evacuation efficiency. The results show that for villages with multiple evacuation routes and optimizable shelter locations,adding risk evacuation points in suitable areas and implementing temporary closures of dangerous road sections prone to flooding can significantly improve the success rate of personnel evacuation,with a maximum increase of 55%. However,for villages with only a single road,early warning strategies are required to improve evacuation success rates.

       

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