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    基于山洪泥石流耦合模型的区域淹没风险研究——以“23·7”北京昌平区典型区域为例

    Research on regional inundation risk based on a coupled flash flood and debris flow model——A case study of a typical area of Changping District in Beijing during the "23·7" rainstorm event

    • 摘要: 针对山区极端暴雨情景下山洪与泥石流并发导致的灾害链效应,传统单一的水文水动力模型常因忽略地形改变而低估淹没风险。以北京昌平区为研究对象,构建了基于TRIGRS、MASSFLOW与VMR-TRITON的山洪泥石流灾害链耦合模型。首先,利用2024年8月9日的山洪事件验证了VMR-TRITON模型在昌平区的适用性;其次,将泥石流导致的地形形变,以动态时变增加地形高程的方法嵌入VMR-TRITON模型;最后,以“23·7”特大暴雨重灾区韩台村为例进行验证。结果表明:VMR-TRITON模型在昌平区的模拟平均相对误差为18.98%,具有较强适用性;与未考虑沟道淤积的模拟结果相比,山洪泥石流耦合模型对韩台村淹没面积模拟的相对误差由-52.66%优化至-22.98%,模拟精度显著提升。研究证实了考虑泥石流淤堵效应在山洪淹没模拟的必要性,为山洪灾害的精细化防御提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: In mountainous areas under extreme rainstorm scenarios, the concurrent occurrence of flash floods and debris flows triggers disaster chain effects. Traditional single hydrological-hydrodynamic models often underestimate inundation risks due to their neglect of terrain alterations. Taking Changping District, Beijing, as the study area, this paper constructs a coupled simulation model for the flash flood-debris flow disaster chain based on TRIGRS, MASSFLOW, and VMR-TRITON. First, the applicability of the VMR-TRITON model in Changping District was validated using the flash flood event of August 9, 2024.Second, debris-flow-induced terrain deformation is incorporated into the hydrodynamic model by dynamically updating terrain elevation over time. Finally, the model was verified using Hantai Village, a severely affected area during the "23·7" catastrophic rainstorm. The results indicate that the average relative simulation error of the VMR-TRITON model in Changping District is approximately 18.98%, demonstrating good applicability. Compared with simulation results that ignore channel deposition, the coupled flash flood-debris flow model improved the relative error in the simulated inundation area of Hantai Village from -52.66% to -22.98%, significantly enhancing accuracy. This study confirms the necessity of considering debris flow silting effects in simulations and provides a scientific basis for the refined defense against flash flood disasters.

       

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